Value bet: Montpellier to win @ 1.73 – our chance 64% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMontpellier to win ✓64% · @1.73
Double chanceMontpellier or draw ✓84% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.47
Montpellier vs Grenoble preview and prediction
The match
Grenoble travel to Stade de la Mosson in the Ligue 2 on Friday 17 April (19:00 WAT) to face Montpellier. Montpellier are 3rd with 24 points from 12 games (in the top four), while Grenoble sit 17th on 11 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Montpellier's last 5: DDDWW Most recently they drew with Annecy 0–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.3 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Grenoble's last 5: DDLLD Most recently they drew with Guingamp 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Montpellier arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Montpellier and 0.7 for Grenoble. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 51%.
Value angle: Montpellier to win at 1.73 – 64% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: Montpellier 1–0 Grenoble. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Montpellier64%fair 1.56 · @1.73
Draw21%fair 4.87 · @3.55
Grenoble16%fair 6.44 · @4.75
2.42Expected goals
1.73Montpellier xG
0.68Grenoble xG
51%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%
From our goals model: Montpellier 1.7 – 0.7 Grenoble expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Montpellier to win✓
64%
1.56
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Montpellier or draw✓
84%
1.18
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.94
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.90
1.93
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.35
Half-time result
Montpellier ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Montpellier / FT Montpellier✓
39%
2.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.47
–
Form
Montpellier – last 6
DDDWWD
10 Apr
@ Annecy
0–0
D
4 Apr
vs Estac Troyes
2–2
D
20 Mar
@ PAU
0–0
D
13 Mar
vs Laval
2–0
W
6 Mar
@ Nancy
3–0
W
27 Feb
vs Reims
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Grenoble – last 6
DDLLDD
10 Apr
@ Guingamp
1–1
D
3 Apr
vs Clermont Foot
2–2
D
20 Mar
@ Laval
2–3
L
6 Mar
@ Rodez
0–1
L
27 Feb
vs Boulogne
0–0
D
20 Feb
@ Nancy
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Montpellier and Grenoble.
What is the prediction for Montpellier vs Grenoble?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Montpellier vs Grenoble?
On our numbers Montpellier have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Grenoble 16%.
How many goals will there be in Montpellier vs Grenoble?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Montpellier vs Grenoble?
Our predicted score is Montpellier 1–0 Grenoble, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Montpellier vs Grenoble?
Montpellier vs Grenoble (Ligue 2) kicks off on Friday 17 April 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade de la Mosson.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Le Mans1
Amiens2