The Ligue 2 sees PAU take on Montpellier on Friday 20 March, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Nouste Camp. PAU are 5th with 20 points from 12 games (in the top half), while Montpellier sit 3rd on 24 points (in the top four).
Form guide
PAU's last 4: WDLL Most recently they beat Clermont Foot 1–0 away. They average 1.8 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Montpellier's last 4: WWDL Most recently they beat Laval 2–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.3 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Montpellier arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for PAU and 1.4 for Montpellier. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: PAU 35%, draw 24%, Montpellier 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.70.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: PAU 1–1 Montpellier. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
PAU35%fair 2.82 · @2.62
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.25
Montpellier40%fair 2.47 · @2.62
2.62Expected goals
1.26PAU xG
1.36Montpellier xG
58%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: PAU 1.3 – 1.4 Montpellier expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Montpellier to win✗
40%
2.47
2.62 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.38
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.94
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Montpellier / FT Montpellier✗
23%
4.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.76
–
Form
PAU – last 4
WDLL
13 Mar
@ Clermont Foot
1–0
W
6 Mar
vs Bastia
2–2
D
21 Feb
@ Estac Troyes
3–4
L
13 Feb
vs Boulogne
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Montpellier – last 4
WWDL
13 Mar
vs Laval
2–0
W
6 Mar
@ Nancy
3–0
W
27 Feb
vs Reims
0–0
D
20 Feb
@ Rodez
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between PAU and Montpellier.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win PAU vs Montpellier?
On our numbers PAU have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Montpellier 40%.
How many goals will there be in PAU vs Montpellier?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for PAU vs Montpellier?
Our predicted score is PAU 1–1 Montpellier, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is PAU vs Montpellier?
PAU vs Montpellier (Ligue 2) kicks off on Friday 20 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Nouste Camp.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Bastia1
Amiens3
Le Mans4