Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Rodez to win @ 2.55 – our chance 46% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultRodez to win ✗46% · @2.55
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.57
Rodez vs Bastia preview and prediction
The match
Bastia travel to Stade Paul-Lignon in the Ligue 2 on Friday 20 March (20:00 WAT) to face Rodez.
Form guide
Rodez's last 3: WWW Most recently they beat Grenoble 1–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.3 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Bastia's last 5: LDLDD Most recently they lost to Boulogne 0–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.6 per game.
Rodez arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 0.6.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.3 for Rodez and 1.0 for Bastia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 50%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Rodez 46%, draw 22%, Bastia 32%.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Rodez to win at 2.55 – 46% on our numbers against 39% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Rodez 1–0 Bastia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Rodez46%fair 2.16 · @2.55
Draw22%fair 4.55 · @3.30
Bastia32%fair 3.14 · @2.70
2.27Expected goals
1.28Rodez xG
0.99Bastia xG
50%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
1–113%
0–010%
0–110%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Rodez 1.3 – 1.0 Bastia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Rodez to win✗
46%
2.16
2.55 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
2.00
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Rodez / FT Rodez✗
25%
4.01
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.57
–
Form
Rodez – last 3
WWW
6 Mar
vs Grenoble
1–0
W
20 Feb
vs Montpellier
1–0
W
13 Feb
@ Clermont Foot
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Bastia – last 5
LDLDD
13 Mar
vs Boulogne
0–1
L
6 Mar
@ PAU
2–2
D
27 Feb
vs Annecy
0–2
L
20 Feb
@ Dunkerque
1–1
D
16 Feb
vs Estac Troyes
0–0
D
0.6Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Rodez and Bastia.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Rodez vs Bastia?
On our numbers Rodez have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Bastia 32%.
How many goals will there be in Rodez vs Bastia?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Rodez vs Bastia?
Our predicted score is Rodez 1–0 Bastia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Rodez vs Bastia?
Rodez vs Bastia (Ligue 2) kicks off on Friday 20 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade Paul-Lignon.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Amiens3
Le Mans4