Value bet: Auxerre to win @ 3.90 – our chance 28% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLorient to win ✗49% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.08
Lorient vs Auxerre preview and prediction
The match
Lorient host Auxerre in the Ligue 1 on Sunday 1 March, with kick-off at 17:15 (WAT) at Stade du Moustoir. Lorient are 10th with 15 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Auxerre sit 14th on 10 points (in the bottom half).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.5 for Lorient and 1.0 for Auxerre. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 53%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lorient 49%, draw 22%, Auxerre 28%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.93.
Value angle: Auxerre to win at 3.90 – 28% on our numbers against 26% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Lorient 1–1 Auxerre. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lorient49%fair 2.03 · @2.00
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.15
Auxerre28%fair 3.53 · @3.90
2.46Expected goals
1.45Lorient xG
1.01Auxerre xG
53%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
2–19%
2–09%
0–19%
0–09%
From our goals model: Lorient 1.5 – 1.0 Auxerre expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lorient to win✗
49%
2.03
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
1.93
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.76
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lorient / FT Lorient✗
28%
3.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.08
–
Form
Lorient – last 2
DW
22 Feb
@ Nice
3–3
D
15 Feb
vs Angers
2–0
W
2.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Auxerre – last 2
LW
22 Feb
vs Rennes
0–3
L
15 Feb
@ Metz
3–1
W
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lorient and Auxerre.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Lorient vs Auxerre?
On our numbers Lorient have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Auxerre 28%.
How many goals will there be in Lorient vs Auxerre?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lorient vs Auxerre?
Our predicted score is Lorient 1–1 Auxerre, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Lorient vs Auxerre?
Lorient vs Auxerre (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 17:15 (West Africa Time) at Stade du Moustoir.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Nantes0
Metz0