Value bet: Auxerre to win @ 2.64 – our chance 44% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAuxerre to win ✓44% · @2.64
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 8.94
Metz vs Auxerre preview and prediction
The match
The Ligue 1 sees Metz take on Auxerre on Sunday 15 February, kicking off at 17:15 (WAT) at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.1 for Metz and 1.4 for Auxerre. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Metz 32%, draw 24%, Auxerre 44%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Auxerre to win at 2.64 – 44% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Metz 1–1 Auxerre. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Metz32%fair 3.13 · @2.80
Draw24%fair 4.23 · @3.00
Auxerre44%fair 2.25 · @2.64
2.52Expected goals
1.13Metz xG
1.39Auxerre xG
59%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–09%
1–29%
0–08%
0–28%
From our goals model: Metz 1.1 – 1.4 Auxerre expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Auxerre to win✓
44%
2.25
2.64 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.70
1.80 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
75%
1.32
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Auxerre / FT Auxerre✓
25%
3.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
8.94
–
Form
Metz
No recent results on record.
Auxerre
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Metz and Auxerre.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Metz vs Auxerre?
On our numbers Metz have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Auxerre 44%.
How many goals will there be in Metz vs Auxerre?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Metz vs Auxerre?
Our predicted score is Metz 1–1 Auxerre, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Metz vs Auxerre?
Metz vs Auxerre (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 17:15 (West Africa Time) at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
