The League One sees Luton take on Exeter City on Tuesday 17 March, kicking off at 20:45 (WAT) at Kenilworth Road.
Form guide
Luton's last 5: DWWDL Most recently they drew with Doncaster 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Exeter City's last 4: LDDD Most recently they lost to Lincoln 0–1 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Luton arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.6 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.8 for Luton and 1.0 for Exeter City. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Luton 58%, draw 22%, Exeter City 19%.
Safer route: Luton or draw (81%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.75.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Luton 1–1 Exeter City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Luton58%fair 1.72 · @1.68
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.75
Exeter City19%fair 5.13 · @4.85
2.85Expected goals
1.83Luton xG
1.03Exeter City xG
59%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–011%
2–110%
2–010%
3–16%
0–16%
From our goals model: Luton 1.8 – 1.0 Exeter City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Luton
Exeter City
Attack vs League One average
+36%
+0%
Goals conceded vs average
-0%
+1%
Our expected goals here
2.02
1.21
Our own ratings from every League One result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Luton to win✓
58%
1.72
1.68
Double chance
Luton or draw✓
81%
1.24
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.70
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.36
Half-time result
Luton ahead at half-time✓
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Luton / FT Luton✓
35%
2.86
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.48
–
Form
Luton – last 5
DWWDL
10 Mar
@ Doncaster
1–1
D
4 Mar
vs Northampton
2–1
W
24 Feb
vs Plymouth
2–1
W
21 Feb
vs Burton Albion
1–1
D
18 Feb
@ Wigan
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
80%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Exeter City – last 4
LDDD
10 Mar
vs Lincoln
0–1
L
3 Mar
vs Burton Albion
1–1
D
21 Feb
@ Peterborough
3–3
D
17 Feb
vs Wycombe
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
75%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Luton and Exeter City.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Luton vs Exeter City?
On our numbers Luton have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Exeter City 19%.
How many goals will there be in Luton vs Exeter City?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Luton vs Exeter City?
Our predicted score is Luton 1–1 Exeter City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Luton vs Exeter City?
Luton vs Exeter City (League One) kicks off on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Kenilworth Road.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Port Vale2
Bolton0
Lincoln2
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