Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultDerby to win ✗57% · @1.83
Double chanceDerby or draw ✗82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.46
Derby vs Sheffield Utd preview and prediction
The match
Derby host Sheffield Utd in the Championship on Saturday 2 May, with kick-off at 12:30 (WAT) at Pride Park. Derby are 23rd with 10 points from 15 games (in the bottom three), while Sheffield Utd sit 10th on 22 points (in the top half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Derby's last 5: LWLWL Most recently they lost to Norwich 1–2 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Sheffield Utd's last 5: LLDLL Most recently they lost to Blackburn 1–3 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Derby arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.9 for Derby and 1.0 for Sheffield Utd. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 56%, both teams to score at 62%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Derby or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.22, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Derby 1–0 Sheffield Utd. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Derby57%fair 1.75 · @1.83
Draw25%fair 4.01 · @3.75
Sheffield Utd18%fair 5.59 · @3.85
2.89Expected goals
1.90Derby xG
0.99Sheffield Utd xG
62%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–011%
1–110%
2–010%
2–110%
3–06%
3–16%
From our goals model: Derby 1.9 – 1.0 Sheffield Utd expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Derby to win✗
57%
1.75
1.83
Double chance
Derby or draw✗
82%
1.22
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.61
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.53
1.48
Half-time result
Derby ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Derby / FT Derby✗
37%
2.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.46
–
Form
Derby – last 6
LWLWLW
21 Apr
@ Norwich
1–2
L
6 Apr
vs Stoke City
2–0
W
3 Apr
@ Coventry
2–3
L
16 Mar
@ Portsmouth
1–0
W
10 Mar
@ Millwall
0–1
L
28 Feb
vs Blackburn
3–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Sheffield Utd – last 6
LLDLLW
22 Apr
vs Blackburn
1–3
L
6 Apr
@ Bristol City
0–1
L
3 Apr
vs Swansea
3–3
D
11 Mar
@ Norwich
1–2
L
25 Feb
vs Coventry
1–2
L
22 Feb
vs Sheffield Wednesday
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Derby and Sheffield Utd.
What is the prediction for Derby vs Sheffield Utd?
Our pick is Derby or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Derby vs Sheffield Utd?
On our numbers Derby have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Sheffield Utd 18%.
How many goals will there be in Derby vs Sheffield Utd?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derby vs Sheffield Utd?
Our predicted score is Derby 1–0 Sheffield Utd, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Derby vs Sheffield Utd?
Derby vs Sheffield Utd (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at Pride Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Leicester1
Coventry4
Hull City2
Ipswich3
Sheffield Wednesday2
Oxford United0