Value bet: Hull City to win @ 2.48 – our chance 43% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultHull City to win ✓43% · @2.48
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.50
Hull City vs Derby preview and prediction
The match
Hull City host Derby in the Championship on Tuesday 24 February, with kick-off at 20:45 (WAT) at MKM Stadium.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.6 for Hull City and 0.9 for Derby. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 55%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Hull City 43%, draw 24%, Derby 32%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Hull City to win at 2.48 – 43% on our numbers against 40% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Hull City 1–0 Derby. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Hull City43%fair 2.31 · @2.48
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.20
Derby32%fair 3.10 · @2.80
2.56Expected goals
1.61Hull City xG
0.95Derby xG
55%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
1–112%
2–010%
2–110%
0–08%
0–17%
From our goals model: Hull City 1.6 – 0.9 Derby expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Hull City to win✓
43%
2.31
2.48 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.87
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Hull City / FT Hull City✗
32%
3.11
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.50
–
Form
Hull City – last 2
LL
21 Feb
vs QPR
1–3
L
13 Feb
vs Chelsea
0–4
L
0.5Scored / game
3.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Derby – last 1
L
21 Feb
@ Watford
0–2
L
0.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Hull City and Derby.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Hull City vs Derby?
On our numbers Hull City have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Derby 32%.
How many goals will there be in Hull City vs Derby?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Hull City vs Derby?
Our predicted score is Hull City 1–0 Derby, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Hull City vs Derby?
Hull City vs Derby (Championship) kicks off on Tuesday 24 February 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at MKM Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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