Value bet: Derby to win @ 3.25 – our chance 37% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultWatford to win ✓39% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.32
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.88
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 9.76
Watford vs Derby preview and prediction
The match
Derby travel to Vicarage Road in the Championship on Saturday 21 February (16:00 WAT) to face Watford. Watford are 20th with 15 points from 15 games (in the bottom half), while Derby sit 23rd on 10 points (in the bottom three).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Watford and 1.2 for Derby. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Watford 39%, draw 24%, Derby 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.88.
Value angle: Derby to win at 3.25 – 37% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.23. Predicted score: Watford 1–1 Derby. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Watford39%fair 2.58 · @2.20
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @3.30
Derby37%fair 2.68 · @3.25
2.52Expected goals
1.28Watford xG
1.25Derby xG
58%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: Watford 1.3 – 1.2 Derby expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Watford to win✓
39%
2.58
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.32
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.71
1.88 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.66
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.23
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Watford / FT Watford✓
21%
4.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
9.76
–
Form
Watford
No recent results on record.
Derby
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Watford and Derby.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.23.
Who will win Watford vs Derby?
On our numbers Watford have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Derby 37%.
How many goals will there be in Watford vs Derby?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Watford vs Derby?
Our predicted score is Watford 1–1 Derby, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Watford vs Derby?
Watford vs Derby (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Vicarage Road.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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