Value bet: Airdrie United to win @ 2.90 – our chance 38% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMorton to win ✗39% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 9.80
Morton vs Airdrie United preview and prediction
The match
The Championship sees Morton take on Airdrie United on Friday 1 May, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT) at Cappielow Park.
Form guide
Morton's last 4: WLLW Most recently they beat Arbroath 2–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Airdrie United's last 3: DLL Most recently they drew with Dunfermline 2–2 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Morton arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Morton and 1.3 for Airdrie United. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Morton 39%, draw 24%, Airdrie United 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Airdrie United to win at 2.90 – 38% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Morton 1–1 Airdrie United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Morton39%fair 2.59 · @2.25
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @3.30
Airdrie United38%fair 2.66 · @2.90
2.52Expected goals
1.27Morton xG
1.25Airdrie United xG
57%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: Morton 1.3 – 1.3 Airdrie United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Morton to win✗
39%
2.59
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.77
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Morton / FT Morton✗
21%
4.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
9.80
–
Form
Morton – last 4
WLLW
28 Mar
vs Arbroath
2–1
W
13 Mar
vs Partick
1–2
L
21 Feb
@ Queen's Park
2–3
L
17 Feb
vs Dunfermline
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Airdrie United – last 3
DLL
14 Apr
vs Dunfermline
2–2
D
21 Feb
@ Partick
0–1
L
13 Feb
vs ST Johnstone
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Morton and Airdrie United.
What is the prediction for Morton vs Airdrie United?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Morton vs Airdrie United?
On our numbers Morton have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Airdrie United 38%.
How many goals will there be in Morton vs Airdrie United?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Morton vs Airdrie United?
Our predicted score is Morton 1–1 Airdrie United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Morton vs Airdrie United?
Morton vs Airdrie United (Championship) kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Cappielow Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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