Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultWaalwijk to win ✓62% · @1.70
Double chanceWaalwijk or draw ✓85% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.44
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.12
MVV vs Waalwijk preview and prediction
The match
MVV host Waalwijk in the Eerste Divisie on Friday 3 April, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at De Geusselt. MVV are 8th with 0 points from 0 games (in the top half), while Waalwijk sit 12th on 0 points (in the bottom half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
MVV's last 5: LDWDD Most recently they lost to Willem II 0–5 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Waalwijk's last 5: DWWWD Most recently they drew with Almere City FC 2–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Waalwijk arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.0 for MVV and 2.2 for Waalwijk. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score in 63% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: MVV 15%, draw 23%, Waalwijk 62%.
Safer route: Waalwijk or draw (85%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.44.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Waalwijk or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: MVV 1–2 Waalwijk. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
MVV15%fair 6.45 · @4.00
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @3.90
Waalwijk62%fair 1.61 · @1.70
3.20Expected goals
1.03MVV xG
2.17Waalwijk xG
63%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–210%
0–210%
1–19%
0–19%
1–37%
0–37%
From our goals model: MVV 1.0 – 2.2 Waalwijk expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Waalwijk to win✓
62%
1.61
1.70 ▲
Double chance
Waalwijk or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.59
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
60%
1.66
–
Half-time result
Waalwijk ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Waalwijk / FT Waalwijk✓
41%
2.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.12
–
Form
MVV – last 6
LDWDDL
22 Mar
vs Willem II
0–5
L
16 Mar
@ Jong AZ
1–1
D
13 Mar
vs VVV Venlo
2–1
W
6 Mar
@ Dordrecht
1–1
D
27 Feb
vs De Graafschap
3–3
D
13 Feb
@ ADO Den Haag
0–3
L
1.2Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Waalwijk – last 6
DWWWDL
17 Mar
@ Almere City FC
2–2
D
13 Mar
vs Jong AZ
2–1
W
6 Mar
@ VVV Venlo
3–0
W
27 Feb
vs FC Eindhoven
2–1
W
20 Feb
@ Cambuur
1–1
D
13 Feb
vs Roda
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between MVV and Waalwijk.
Our pick is Waalwijk or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win MVV vs Waalwijk?
On our numbers MVV have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Waalwijk 62%.
How many goals will there be in MVV vs Waalwijk?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for MVV vs Waalwijk?
Our predicted score is MVV 1–2 Waalwijk, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is MVV vs Waalwijk?
MVV vs Waalwijk (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Friday 3 April 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at De Geusselt.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
ADO Den Haag4
Cambuur0
Willem II1