Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Jong AZ to win @ 1.85 – our chance 63% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultJong AZ to win ✓63% · @1.85
Double chanceJong AZ or draw ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.44
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.19
Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport preview and prediction
The match
Jong AZ host Helmond Sport in the Eerste Divisie on Friday 3 April, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at AFAS Trainingscomplex. Jong AZ are 19th with 0 points from 0 games (in the bottom three), while Helmond Sport sit 7th on 0 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Jong AZ's last 5: DLLLD Most recently they drew with MVV 1–1 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Helmond Sport's last 5: DLLDL Most recently they drew with Roda 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Jong AZ arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 0.8 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 2.2 for Jong AZ and 1.1 for Helmond Sport. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score in 62% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Jong AZ 63%, draw 19%, Helmond Sport 18%.
Safer route: Jong AZ or draw (82%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.44.
Value angle: Jong AZ to win at 1.85 – 63% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Jong AZ or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.21, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Jong AZ 2–1 Helmond Sport. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Jong AZ63%fair 1.58 · @1.85
Draw19%fair 5.28 · @3.60
Helmond Sport18%fair 5.65 · @3.60
3.30Expected goals
2.22Jong AZ xG
1.08Helmond Sport xG
62%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
2–09%
1–19%
1–08%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Jong AZ 2.2 – 1.1 Helmond Sport expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Jong AZ to win✓
63%
1.58
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Jong AZ or draw✓
82%
1.21
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.61
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
–
Half-time result
Jong AZ ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Jong AZ / FT Jong AZ✓
41%
2.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.19
–
Form
Jong AZ – last 6
DLLLDW
16 Mar
vs MVV
1–1
D
13 Mar
@ Waalwijk
1–2
L
9 Mar
vs Emmen
2–3
L
27 Feb
@ Vitesse
0–2
L
23 Feb
vs Den Bosch
2–2
D
13 Feb
@ FC OSS
3–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Helmond Sport – last 6
DLLDLL
20 Mar
@ Roda
1–1
D
16 Mar
vs Cambuur
0–1
L
13 Mar
@ Jong Utrecht
0–1
L
6 Mar
vs FC OSS
1–1
D
27 Feb
@ Jong Ajax
1–5
L
20 Feb
vs ADO Den Haag
1–3
L
0.7Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Jong AZ and Helmond Sport.
What is the prediction for Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport?
Our pick is Jong AZ or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport?
On our numbers Jong AZ have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Helmond Sport 18%.
How many goals will there be in Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport?
Our predicted score is Jong AZ 2–1 Helmond Sport, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport?
Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Friday 3 April 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
ADO Den Haag4
Cambuur0
Willem II1