Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Utrecht to win @ 1.78 – our chance 62% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultUtrecht to win62% · @1.78
Double chanceUtrecht or draw86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score58% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–011% · fair 8.95
Utrecht vs NAC Breda preview and prediction
The match
Utrecht host NAC Breda in the Eredivisie on Saturday 2 May, with kick-off at 15:30 (WAT) at Stadion Galgenwaard.
Form guide
Utrecht's last 5: LWWDW Most recently they lost to Excelsior 0–5 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
NAC Breda's last 5: DDLDL Most recently they drew with Fortuna Sittard 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Utrecht arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.6.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.0 for Utrecht and 0.9 for NAC Breda. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 56%, both teams to score at 58%.
Value angle: Utrecht to win at 1.78 – 62% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Utrecht or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Utrecht 1–0 NAC Breda. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Utrecht62%fair 1.63 · @1.78
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.80
NAC Breda14%fair 7.02 · @4.10
2.88Expected goals
2.00Utrecht xG
0.89NAC Breda xG
58%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–011%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Utrecht 2.0 – 0.9 NAC Breda expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Utrecht to win
62%
1.63
1.78 ▲
Double chance
Utrecht or draw
86%
1.17
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
58%
1.73
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
78%
1.28
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
56%
1.78
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
66%
1.52
1.48
Half-time result
Utrecht ahead at half-time
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Utrecht / FT Utrecht
40%
2.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
11%
8.95
–
Form
Utrecht – last 6
LWWDWD
26 Apr
@ Excelsior
0–5
L
22 Mar
vs GO Ahead Eagles
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Twente
2–0
W
6 Mar
@ Heracles
0–0
D
1 Mar
vs AZ Alkmaar
2–0
W
22 Feb
vs PEC Zwolle
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
NAC Breda – last 5
DDLDL
12 Apr
@ Fortuna Sittard
1–1
D
5 Apr
vs Sparta Rotterdam
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ GO Ahead Eagles
0–6
L
8 Mar
vs Feyenoord
3–3
D
27 Feb
@ Telstar
0–3
L
0.8Scored / game
2.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Utrecht and NAC Breda.
Our pick is Utrecht or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Utrecht vs NAC Breda?
On our numbers Utrecht have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and NAC Breda 14%.
How many goals will there be in Utrecht vs NAC Breda?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Utrecht vs NAC Breda?
Our predicted score is Utrecht 1–0 NAC Breda, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Utrecht vs NAC Breda?
Utrecht vs NAC Breda (Eredivisie) kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Galgenwaard.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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