Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Groningen to win @ 1.67 – our chance 67% vs 60% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultGroningen to win67% · @1.67
Double chanceGroningen or draw86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score60% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals81% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–011% · fair 8.75
Groningen vs Excelsior preview and prediction
The match
The Eredivisie sees Groningen take on Excelsior on Saturday 2 May, kicking off at 17:45 (WAT) at Euroborg. Groningen are 9th with 15 points from 12 games (in the top half), while Excelsior sit 15th on 11 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Groningen's last 4: WDLL Most recently they beat AZ Alkmaar 3–0 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Excelsior's last 5: WDDLL Most recently they beat Utrecht 5–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.1 for Groningen and 0.9 for Excelsior. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Groningen to win at 1.67 – 67% on our numbers against 60% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Groningen or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Groningen 2–0 Excelsior. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Groningen67%fair 1.50 · @1.67
Draw20%fair 5.09 · @4.20
Excelsior14%fair 7.26 · @4.35
2.99Expected goals
2.14Groningen xG
0.86Excelsior xG
60%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–011%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Groningen 2.1 – 0.9 Excelsior expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Groningen to win
67%
1.50
1.67 ▲
Double chance
Groningen or draw
86%
1.16
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
60%
1.67
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
81%
1.23
1.15
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
60%
1.66
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
62%
1.63
1.62
Half-time result
Groningen ahead at half-time
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Groningen / FT Groningen
43%
2.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0
11%
8.75
–
Form
Groningen – last 4
WDLL
22 Mar
vs AZ Alkmaar
3–0
W
13 Mar
@ PEC Zwolle
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ FC Volendam
2–3
L
22 Feb
@ Twente
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Excelsior – last 5
WDDLL
26 Apr
vs Utrecht
5–0
W
12 Apr
@ PEC Zwolle
2–2
D
20 Mar
@ Heracles
1–1
D
15 Mar
@ Feyenoord
1–2
L
20 Feb
@ Fortuna Sittard
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
80%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Groningen and Excelsior.
What is the prediction for Groningen vs Excelsior?
Our pick is Groningen or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Groningen vs Excelsior?
On our numbers Groningen have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Excelsior 14%.
How many goals will there be in Groningen vs Excelsior?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Groningen vs Excelsior?
Our predicted score is Groningen 2–0 Excelsior, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Groningen vs Excelsior?
Groningen vs Excelsior (Eredivisie) kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Euroborg.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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