Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce prediction & analysis
79%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Korona Kielce to win @ 3.15 – our chance 36% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLechia Gdansk to win ✓42% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.39
Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce preview and prediction
The match
The Ekstraklasa sees Lechia Gdansk take on Korona Kielce on Monday 6 April, kicking off at 19:15 (WAT) at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
Form guide
Lechia Gdansk's last 4: WDLW Most recently they beat Jagiellonia 3–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Korona Kielce's last 4: WLLW Most recently they beat Arka Gdynia 3–0 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.6 for Lechia Gdansk and 1.4 for Korona Kielce. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score in 64% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lechia Gdansk 42%, draw 22%, Korona Kielce 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.60.
Value angle: Korona Kielce to win at 3.15 – 36% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Lechia Gdansk 1–1 Korona Kielce. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lechia Gdansk42%fair 2.38 · @2.10
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.60
Korona Kielce36%fair 2.80 · @3.15
3.00Expected goals
1.57Lechia Gdansk xG
1.43Korona Kielce xG
64%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–08%
0–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Lechia Gdansk 1.6 – 1.4 Korona Kielce expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lechia Gdansk to win✓
42%
2.38
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
64%
1.57
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.77
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
66%
1.53
1.42
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.52
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lechia Gdansk / FT Lechia Gdansk✓
24%
4.11
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.39
–
Form
Lechia Gdansk – last 4
WDLW
6 Mar
vs Jagiellonia
3–0
W
27 Feb
@ Arka Gdynia
2–2
D
23 Feb
vs Zaglebie Lubin
0–2
L
15 Feb
@ Motor Lublin
3–2
W
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Korona Kielce – last 4
WLLW
22 Mar
vs Arka Gdynia
3–0
W
16 Mar
@ Pogon Szczecin
1–2
L
22 Feb
vs Lech Poznan
1–2
L
13 Feb
@ Radomiak Radom
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lechia Gdansk and Korona Kielce.
What is the prediction for Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce?
On our numbers Lechia Gdansk have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Korona Kielce 36%.
How many goals will there be in Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce?
Our predicted score is Lechia Gdansk 1–1 Korona Kielce, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce?
Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce (Ekstraklasa) kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 19:15 (West Africa Time) at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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