Value bet: Sunderland to win @ 3.50 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultChelsea to win ✗47% · @1.97
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 10.23
Sunderland vs Chelsea preview and prediction
The match
The Premier League sees Sunderland take on Chelsea on Sunday 24 May, kicking off at 16:00 (WAT) at Stadium of Light. Sunderland are 19th with 8 points from 10 games (in the bottom three), while Chelsea sit 5th on 16 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Sunderland's last 5: WLWLW Most recently they beat Everton 3–1 away. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Chelsea's last 5: WDLLL Most recently they beat Tottenham 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 2.7 conceded.
Sunderland arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.2 for Sunderland and 1.5 for Chelsea. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 61%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sunderland 32%, draw 20%, Chelsea 47%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Sunderland to win at 3.50 – 32% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Sunderland 1–1 Chelsea. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sunderland32%fair 3.08 · @3.50
Draw20%fair 4.93 · @3.65
Chelsea47%fair 2.12 · @1.97
2.76Expected goals
1.22Sunderland xG
1.54Chelsea xG
61%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–08%
0–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Sunderland 1.2 – 1.5 Chelsea expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Chelsea to win✗
47%
2.12
1.97
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.25
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.63
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.42
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Chelsea / FT Chelsea✗
27%
3.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
10.23
–
Form
Sunderland – last 6
WLWLWD
17 May
@ Everton
3–1
W
19 Apr
@ Aston Villa
3–4
L
22 Mar
@ Newcastle
2–1
W
8 Mar
@ Port Vale
0–1
L
3 Mar
@ Leeds
1–0
W
28 Feb
@ Bournemouth
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Chelsea – last 6
WDLLLL
19 May
vs Tottenham
2–1
W
9 May
@ Liverpool
1–1
D
4 May
vs Nottingham Forest
1–3
L
21 Apr
@ Brighton
0–3
L
17 Mar
vs Paris Saint Germain
0–3
L
11 Mar
@ Paris Saint Germain
2–5
L
1.0Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sunderland and Chelsea.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Sunderland vs Chelsea?
On our numbers Sunderland have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Chelsea 47%.
How many goals will there be in Sunderland vs Chelsea?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Chelsea?
Our predicted score is Sunderland 1–1 Chelsea, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Sunderland vs Chelsea?
Sunderland vs Chelsea (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadium of Light.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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