Brighton vs Manchester United prediction & analysis
63%
Footrivo pick
Brighton to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.79 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.79Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultBrighton to win ✗63% · @1.79
Double chanceEither team to win ✓85% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.45
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.05
Brighton vs Manchester United preview and prediction
The match
Brighton host Manchester United in the Premier League on Sunday 24 May, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT) at Amex Stadium. Brighton are 2nd with 22 points from 10 games (in the top four), while Manchester United sit 18th on 8 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Brighton's last 5: LWLWW Most recently they lost to Leeds 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.4 scored and 0.6 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Manchester United's last 5: WWLDW Most recently they beat Nottingham Forest 3–2 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.0 for Brighton and 1.0 for Manchester United. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score in 61% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Brighton 63%, draw 15%, Manchester United 22%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.45.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Brighton to win – a 63% chance at odds of 1.79, above our fair price of 1.58, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Brighton 2–1 Manchester United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Brighton63%fair 1.58 · @1.79
Draw15%fair 6.64 · @4.00
Manchester United22%fair 4.60 · @3.80
3.08Expected goals
2.03Brighton xG
1.04Manchester United xG
61%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
1–110%
2–010%
1–09%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Brighton 2.0 – 1.0 Manchester United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Brighton to win✗
63%
1.58
1.79 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
85%
1.18
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.65
1.45
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.14
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
60%
1.68
1.67
Half-time result
Brighton ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Brighton / FT Brighton✗
38%
2.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.05
–
Form
Brighton – last 5
LWLWW
17 May
@ Leeds
0–1
L
21 Apr
vs Chelsea
3–0
W
4 Mar
vs Arsenal
0–1
L
1 Mar
vs Nottingham Forest
2–1
W
21 Feb
@ Brentford
2–0
W
1.4Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
20%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Manchester United – last 6
WWLDWL
17 May
vs Nottingham Forest
3–2
W
27 Apr
vs Brentford
2–1
W
13 Apr
vs Leeds
1–2
L
20 Mar
@ Bournemouth
2–2
D
15 Mar
vs Aston Villa
3–1
W
4 Mar
@ Newcastle
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Brighton and Manchester United.
What is the prediction for Brighton vs Manchester United?
Our pick is Brighton to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.79.
Who will win Brighton vs Manchester United?
On our numbers Brighton have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Manchester United 22%.
How many goals will there be in Brighton vs Manchester United?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Brighton vs Manchester United?
Our predicted score is Brighton 2–1 Manchester United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Brighton vs Manchester United?
Brighton vs Manchester United (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Amex Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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