Value bet: Wolves to win @ 2.86 – our chance 37% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBurnley to win ✗40% · @2.28
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 11.72
Burnley vs Wolves preview and prediction
The match
Burnley host Wolves in the Premier League on Sunday 24 May, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT) at Turf Moor.
Form guide
Burnley's last 5: LDLLL Most recently they lost to Arsenal 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Wolves's last 5: DLDLW Most recently they drew with Fulham 1–1 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Wolves arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.4 for Burnley and 1.4 for Wolves. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 62%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Burnley 40%, draw 23%, Wolves 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.57.
Value angle: Wolves to win at 2.86 – 37% on our numbers against 35% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Burnley 1–1 Wolves. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Burnley40%fair 2.50 · @2.28
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @3.55
Wolves37%fair 2.67 · @2.86
2.83Expected goals
1.44Burnley xG
1.39Wolves xG
62%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–06%
From our goals model: Burnley 1.4 – 1.4 Wolves expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Burnley to win✗
40%
2.50
2.28
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.29
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.61
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.44
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Burnley / FT Burnley✗
23%
4.42
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
9%
11.72
–
Form
Burnley – last 6
LDLLLL
18 May
@ Arsenal
0–1
L
10 May
vs Aston Villa
2–2
D
1 May
@ Leeds
1–3
L
22 Apr
vs Manchester City
0–1
L
19 Apr
@ Nottingham Forest
1–4
L
3 Mar
@ Everton
0–2
L
0.7Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Wolves – last 6
DLDLWW
17 May
vs Fulham
1–1
D
10 Apr
@ West Ham
0–4
L
16 Mar
@ Brentford
2–2
D
6 Mar
vs Liverpool
1–3
L
3 Mar
vs Liverpool
2–1
W
27 Feb
vs Aston Villa
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Burnley and Wolves.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Burnley vs Wolves?
On our numbers Burnley have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Wolves 37%.
How many goals will there be in Burnley vs Wolves?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Burnley vs Wolves?
Our predicted score is Burnley 1–1 Wolves, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Burnley vs Wolves?
Burnley vs Wolves (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Turf Moor.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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Manchester United3
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Arsenal2
Fulham2
Newcastle0
Liverpool1
Brentford1
Manchester City1
Aston Villa2
Nottingham Forest1
Bournemouth1
Sunderland2
Chelsea1
Tottenham1
Everton0