Brighton travel to Elland Road in the Premier League on Sunday 17 May (15:00 WAT) to face Leeds. Leeds are 9th with 14 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Brighton sit 2nd on 22 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Leeds's last 5: WDWDW Most recently they beat Burnley 3–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Brighton's last 4: WLWW Most recently they beat Chelsea 3–0 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 0.5 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.3 for Leeds and 1.6 for Brighton. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 56%, both teams to score at 62%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Leeds 33%, draw 20%, Brighton 47%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.55.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Leeds 1–1 Brighton. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leeds33%fair 3.05 · @3.20
Draw20%fair 4.90 · @3.60
Brighton47%fair 2.14 · @2.08
2.84Expected goals
1.27Leeds xG
1.58Brighton xG
62%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–07%
2–17%
0–27%
From our goals model: Leeds 1.3 – 1.6 Brighton expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Brighton to win✗
47%
2.14
2.08
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.26
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.62
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
78%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.48
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.45
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Brighton / FT Brighton✗
27%
3.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
9%
10.88
–
Form
Leeds – last 6
WDWDWL
1 May
vs Burnley
3–1
W
22 Apr
@ Bournemouth
2–2
D
13 Apr
@ Manchester United
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Crystal Palace
0–0
D
8 Mar
vs Norwich
3–0
W
3 Mar
vs Sunderland
0–1
L
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Brighton – last 4
WLWW
21 Apr
vs Chelsea
3–0
W
4 Mar
vs Arsenal
0–1
L
1 Mar
vs Nottingham Forest
2–1
W
21 Feb
@ Brentford
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leeds and Brighton.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Leeds vs Brighton?
On our numbers Leeds have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Brighton 47%.
How many goals will there be in Leeds vs Brighton?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leeds vs Brighton?
Our predicted score is Leeds 1–1 Brighton, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Leeds vs Brighton?
Leeds vs Brighton (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Elland Road.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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