Sunderland vs Manchester United prediction & analysis
81%
Footrivo pick
Manchester United or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.25
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Manchester United to win @ 1.91 – our chance 60% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultManchester United to win60% · @1.91
Double chanceManchester United or draw81% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score60% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–111% · fair 9.01
Sunderland vs Manchester United preview and prediction
The match
Sunderland host Manchester United in the Premier League on Saturday 9 May, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Stadium of Light. Sunderland are 19th with 8 points from 10 games (in the bottom three), while Manchester United sit 18th on 8 points (in the bottom three). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Sunderland's last 5: LWLWD Most recently they lost to Aston Villa 3–4 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Manchester United's last 5: WLDWL Most recently they beat Brentford 2–1 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Manchester United arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 0.9 for Sunderland and 1.9 for Manchester United. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 60%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sunderland 19%, draw 22%, Manchester United 60%.
Safer route: Manchester United or draw (81%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Manchester United to win at 1.91 – 60% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Manchester United or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Sunderland 0–1 Manchester United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sunderland19%fair 5.32 · @3.75
Draw22%fair 4.62 · @3.60
Manchester United60%fair 1.68 · @1.91
2.83Expected goals
0.95Sunderland xG
1.88Manchester United xG
60%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–111%
1–111%
0–210%
1–210%
0–37%
1–36%
From our goals model: Sunderland 0.9 – 1.9 Manchester United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Manchester United to win
60%
1.68
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Manchester United or draw
81%
1.23
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
60%
1.66
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
55%
1.83
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
67%
1.49
1.44
Half-time result
Manchester United ahead at half-time
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Manchester United / FT Manchester United
37%
2.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
11%
9.01
–
Form
Sunderland – last 6
LWLWDL
19 Apr
@ Aston Villa
3–4
L
22 Mar
@ Newcastle
2–1
W
8 Mar
@ Port Vale
0–1
L
3 Mar
@ Leeds
1–0
W
28 Feb
@ Bournemouth
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Fulham
1–3
L
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Manchester United – last 6
WLDWLW
27 Apr
vs Brentford
2–1
W
13 Apr
vs Leeds
1–2
L
20 Mar
@ Bournemouth
2–2
D
15 Mar
vs Aston Villa
3–1
W
4 Mar
@ Newcastle
1–2
L
1 Mar
vs Crystal Palace
2–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sunderland and Manchester United.
What is the prediction for Sunderland vs Manchester United?
Our pick is Manchester United or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Sunderland vs Manchester United?
On our numbers Sunderland have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Manchester United 60%.
How many goals will there be in Sunderland vs Manchester United?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Manchester United?
Our predicted score is Sunderland 0–1 Manchester United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Sunderland vs Manchester United?
Sunderland vs Manchester United (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadium of Light.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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