Newcastle vs Manchester United prediction & analysis
62%
Footrivo pick
Over 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.53Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultManchester United to win ✗41% · @2.44
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.44
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.36
Newcastle vs Manchester United preview and prediction
The match
Manchester United travel to St. James' Park in the Premier League on Wednesday 4 March (21:15 WAT) to face Newcastle. Newcastle are 12th with 12 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Manchester United sit 18th on 8 points (in the bottom three).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 1.5 for Newcastle and 1.7 for Manchester United. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score in 63% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Newcastle 35%, draw 24%, Manchester United 41%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.44.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 62% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Newcastle 1–2 Manchester United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Newcastle35%fair 2.89 · @2.60
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.65
Manchester United41%fair 2.43 · @2.44
3.27Expected goals
1.53Newcastle xG
1.74Manchester United xG
63%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
1–29%
2–18%
2–27%
0–17%
1–06%
From our goals model: Newcastle 1.5 – 1.7 Manchester United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Manchester United to win✗
41%
2.43
2.44
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.58
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.60
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
1.60
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
38%
2.66
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Manchester United / FT Manchester United✗
26%
3.86
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.36
–
Form
Newcastle – last 2
WW
24 Feb
vs Qarabag
3–2
W
18 Feb
@ Qarabag
6–1
W
4.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Manchester United – last 2
WW
1 Mar
vs Crystal Palace
2–1
W
23 Feb
@ Everton
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Newcastle and Manchester United.
What is the prediction for Newcastle vs Manchester United?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Newcastle vs Manchester United?
On our numbers Newcastle have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Manchester United 41%.
How many goals will there be in Newcastle vs Manchester United?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle vs Manchester United?
Our predicted score is Newcastle 1–2 Manchester United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Newcastle vs Manchester United?
Newcastle vs Manchester United (Premier League) kicks off on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 21:15 (West Africa Time) at St. James' Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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