Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultAston Villa to win ✗40% · @2.62
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.20
Aston Villa vs Chelsea preview and prediction
The match
Chelsea travel to Villa Park in the Premier League on Wednesday 4 March (20:30 WAT) to face Aston Villa. Aston Villa are 10th with 13 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Chelsea sit 5th on 16 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Chelsea's last 3: LDW Most recently they lost to Arsenal 1–2 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 1.8 for Aston Villa and 1.5 for Chelsea. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score in 62% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Aston Villa 40%, draw 24%, Chelsea 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.55.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 81% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Aston Villa 1–1 Chelsea. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Aston Villa40%fair 2.49 · @2.62
Draw24%fair 4.24 · @3.55
Chelsea36%fair 2.76 · @2.46
3.31Expected goals
1.80Aston Villa xG
1.51Chelsea xG
62%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
2–19%
1–28%
2–27%
1–07%
2–06%
From our goals model: Aston Villa 1.8 – 1.5 Chelsea expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aston Villa to win✗
40%
2.49
2.62 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.61
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
61%
1.63
1.45
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
37%
2.68
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Aston Villa / FT Aston Villa✗
27%
3.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.20
–
Form
Aston Villa – last 2
LD
27 Feb
@ Wolves
0–2
L
21 Feb
vs Leeds
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Chelsea – last 3
LDW
1 Mar
@ Arsenal
1–2
L
21 Feb
vs Burnley
1–1
D
13 Feb
@ Hull City
4–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Aston Villa and Chelsea.
What is the prediction for Aston Villa vs Chelsea?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Chelsea?
On our numbers Aston Villa have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Chelsea 36%.
How many goals will there be in Aston Villa vs Chelsea?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs Chelsea?
Our predicted score is Aston Villa 1–1 Chelsea, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Aston Villa vs Chelsea?
Aston Villa vs Chelsea (Premier League) kicks off on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Villa Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
West Ham1