Arsenal travel to Amex Stadium in the Premier League on Wednesday 4 March (20:30 WAT) to face Brighton. Brighton are 2nd with 22 points from 10 games (in the top four), while Arsenal sit 1st on 27 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Arsenal's last 4: WWDW Most recently they beat Chelsea 2–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 3.0 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Brighton and 1.2 for Arsenal. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 51%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Brighton 23%, draw 26%, Arsenal 50%.
Safer route: Arsenal or draw (77%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.90.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Brighton 1–1 Arsenal. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Brighton23%fair 4.27 · @5.00
Draw26%fair 3.82 · @3.80
Arsenal50%fair 1.98 · @1.65
2.42Expected goals
1.18Brighton xG
1.24Arsenal xG
51%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Brighton 1.2 – 1.2 Arsenal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arsenal to win✓
50%
1.98
1.65
Double chance
Arsenal or draw✓
77%
1.31
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.41
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arsenal / FT Arsenal✓
22%
4.62
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
11%
9.03
–
Form
Brighton – last 2
WW
1 Mar
vs Nottingham Forest
2–1
W
21 Feb
@ Brentford
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Arsenal – last 4
WWDW
1 Mar
vs Chelsea
2–1
W
22 Feb
@ Tottenham
4–1
W
18 Feb
@ Wolves
2–2
D
15 Feb
vs Wigan
4–0
W
3.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Brighton and Arsenal.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Brighton vs Arsenal?
On our numbers Brighton have a 23% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Arsenal 50%.
How many goals will there be in Brighton vs Arsenal?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Brighton vs Arsenal?
Our predicted score is Brighton 1–1 Arsenal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Brighton vs Arsenal?
Brighton vs Arsenal (Premier League) kicks off on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Amex Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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