Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Manchester City to win @ 1.61 – our chance 68% vs 62% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultManchester City to win68% · @1.61
Double chanceManchester City or draw87% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score57% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–210% · fair 10.28
Leeds vs Manchester City preview and prediction
The match
The Premier League sees Leeds take on Manchester City on Saturday 28 February, kicking off at 18:30 (WAT) at Elland Road. Leeds are 9th with 14 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Manchester City sit 3rd on 21 points (in the top four).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 0.8 for Leeds and 2.2 for Manchester City. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 57% and both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Leeds 13%, draw 19%, Manchester City 68%.
Safer route: Manchester City or draw (87%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Manchester City to win at 1.61 – 68% on our numbers against 62% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Leeds 0–2 Manchester City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leeds13%fair 7.66 · @4.75
Draw19%fair 5.26 · @4.20
Manchester City68%fair 1.47 · @1.61
2.99Expected goals
0.83Leeds xG
2.16Manchester City xG
57%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–212%
0–111%
1–210%
1–19%
0–38%
1–37%
From our goals model: Leeds 0.8 – 2.2 Manchester City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Manchester City to win
68%
1.47
1.61 ▲
Double chance
Manchester City or draw
87%
1.15
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
57%
1.75
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
79%
1.27
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
57%
1.76
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
65%
1.54
1.45
Half-time result
Manchester City ahead at half-time
49%
2.03
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Manchester City / FT Manchester City
44%
2.25
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
10%
10.28
–
Form
Leeds – last 1
D
21 Feb
@ Aston Villa
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Manchester City
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leeds and Manchester City.
What is the prediction for Leeds vs Manchester City?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Leeds vs Manchester City?
On our numbers Leeds have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Manchester City 68%.
How many goals will there be in Leeds vs Manchester City?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leeds vs Manchester City?
Our predicted score is Leeds 0–2 Manchester City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Leeds vs Manchester City?
Leeds vs Manchester City (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time) at Elland Road.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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