Value bet: Sassuolo to win @ 2.60 – our chance 41% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSassuolo to win ✗41% · @2.60
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.23
Parma vs Sassuolo preview and prediction
The match
Parma host Sassuolo in the Serie A on Sunday 24 May, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT) at Stadio Ennio Tardini. Parma are 16th with 8 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Sassuolo sit 17th on 8 points (in the bottom half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Parma's last 5: LLDDW Most recently they lost to Como 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Sassuolo's last 5: LLWDW Most recently they lost to Lecce 2–3 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.2 for Parma and 1.3 for Sassuolo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Parma 35%, draw 24%, Sassuolo 41%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Sassuolo to win at 2.60 – 41% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: Parma 1–1 Sassuolo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Parma35%fair 2.86 · @2.60
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.30
Sassuolo41%fair 2.43 · @2.60
2.49Expected goals
1.18Parma xG
1.31Sassuolo xG
56%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
1–28%
0–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Parma 1.2 – 1.3 Sassuolo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sassuolo to win✗
41%
2.43
2.60 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
1.93
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.35
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sassuolo / FT Sassuolo✗
23%
4.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.23
–
Form
Parma – last 6
LLDDWW
17 May
@ Como
0–1
L
13 Mar
@ Torino
1–4
L
8 Mar
@ Fiorentina
0–0
D
27 Feb
vs Cagliari
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ AC Milan
1–0
W
15 Feb
vs Verona
2–1
W
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Sassuolo – last 6
LLWDWL
17 May
vs Lecce
2–3
L
8 May
@ Torino
1–2
L
3 May
vs AC Milan
2–0
W
26 Apr
@ Fiorentina
0–0
D
17 Apr
vs Como
2–1
W
12 Apr
@ Genoa
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Parma and Sassuolo.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Parma vs Sassuolo?
On our numbers Parma have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Sassuolo 41%.
How many goals will there be in Parma vs Sassuolo?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Parma vs Sassuolo?
Our predicted score is Parma 1–1 Sassuolo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Parma vs Sassuolo?
Parma vs Sassuolo (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Cremonese1
Hellas Verona0