Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 51% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLecce to win ✓60% · @1.72
Double chanceLecce or draw ✓85% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓16% · fair 6.20
Lecce vs Genoa preview and prediction
The match
Genoa travel to Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare in the Serie A on Sunday 24 May (19:45 WAT) to face Lecce. Lecce are 14th with 10 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Genoa sit 13th on 13 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Lecce's last 5: WWDLW Most recently they beat Sassuolo 3–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Genoa's last 5: LDLWL Most recently they lost to AC Milan 1–2 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Lecce arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.6 for Lecce and 0.7 for Genoa. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lecce 60%, draw 25%, Genoa 15%.
Safer route: Lecce or draw (85%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.15.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.15 – 51% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Lecce 1–0 Genoa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lecce60%fair 1.67 · @1.72
Draw25%fair 3.97 · @3.45
Genoa15%fair 6.65 · @5.10
2.31Expected goals
1.63Lecce xG
0.68Genoa xG
51%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–013%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–07%
From our goals model: Lecce 1.6 – 0.7 Genoa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lecce to win✓
60%
1.67
1.72
Double chance
Lecce or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.98
2.15 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
67%
1.50
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lecce / FT Lecce✓
37%
2.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
16%
6.20
–
Form
Lecce – last 6
WWDLWW
17 May
@ Sassuolo
3–2
W
1 May
@ Pisa
2–1
W
20 Apr
vs Fiorentina
1–1
D
6 Apr
vs Atalanta
0–3
L
8 Mar
vs Cremonese
2–1
W
16 Feb
@ Cagliari
2–0
W
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Genoa – last 6
LDLWLL
17 May
vs AC Milan
1–2
L
10 May
@ Fiorentina
0–0
D
26 Apr
vs Como
0–2
L
12 Apr
vs Sassuolo
2–1
W
6 Apr
@ Juventus
0–2
L
20 Mar
vs Udinese
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lecce and Genoa.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Lecce vs Genoa?
On our numbers Lecce have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Genoa 15%.
How many goals will there be in Lecce vs Genoa?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lecce vs Genoa?
Our predicted score is Lecce 1–0 Genoa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Lecce vs Genoa?
Lecce vs Genoa (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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