AC Milan travel to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in the Serie A on Monday 6 April (19:45 WAT) to face Napoli. Napoli are 10th with 15 points from 11 games (in the top half), while AC Milan sit 4th on 24 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Napoli's last 4: WWLD Most recently they beat Cagliari 1–0 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
AC Milan's last 5: LWLDW Most recently they lost to Lazio 0–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Napoli and 1.1 for AC Milan. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Napoli 41%, draw 26%, AC Milan 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.90.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Napoli 1–1 AC Milan. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Napoli41%fair 2.44 · @2.42
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @2.96
AC Milan33%fair 3.01 · @3.15
2.39Expected goals
1.28Napoli xG
1.12AC Milan xG
52%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Napoli 1.3 – 1.1 AC Milan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Napoli to win✓
41%
2.44
2.42
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.94
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Napoli / FT Napoli✗
23%
4.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.04
–
Form
Napoli – last 4
WWLD
20 Mar
@ Cagliari
1–0
W
6 Mar
vs Torino
2–1
W
22 Feb
@ Atalanta
1–2
L
15 Feb
vs AS Roma
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
AC Milan – last 5
LWLDW
15 Mar
@ Lazio
0–1
L
1 Mar
@ Cremonese
2–0
W
22 Feb
vs Parma
0–1
L
18 Feb
vs Como
1–1
D
13 Feb
@ Pisa
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Napoli and AC Milan.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Napoli vs AC Milan?
On our numbers Napoli have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 26% and AC Milan 33%.
How many goals will there be in Napoli vs AC Milan?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Napoli vs AC Milan?
Our predicted score is Napoli 1–1 AC Milan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Napoli vs AC Milan?
Napoli vs AC Milan (Serie A) kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
