Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: AC Milan to win @ 1.95 – our chance 60% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAC Milan to win ✗60% · @1.95
Double chanceAC Milan or draw ✗84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗18% · fair 5.62
Lazio vs AC Milan preview and prediction
The match
Lazio host AC Milan in the Serie A on Sunday 15 March, with kick-off at 20:45 (WAT) at Stadio Olimpico. Lazio are 1st with 29 points from 11 games (top of the table), while AC Milan sit 4th on 24 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Lazio's last 3: WDL Most recently they beat Sassuolo 2–1 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
AC Milan's last 4: WLDW Most recently they beat Cremonese 2–0 away. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 0.6 for Lazio and 1.5 for AC Milan. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lazio 16%, draw 24%, AC Milan 60%.
Safer route: AC Milan or draw (84%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.85.
Value angle: AC Milan to win at 1.95 – 60% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was AC Milan or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Lazio 0–1 AC Milan. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lazio16%fair 6.23 · @3.80
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @3.25
AC Milan60%fair 1.68 · @1.95
2.14Expected goals
0.63Lazio xG
1.51AC Milan xG
47%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–118%
0–213%
0–012%
1–111%
1–28%
1–07%
From our goals model: Lazio 0.6 – 1.5 AC Milan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AC Milan to win✗
60%
1.68
1.95 ▲
Double chance
AC Milan or draw✗
84%
1.19
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.90
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AC Milan / FT AC Milan✗
36%
2.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
18%
5.62
–
Form
Lazio – last 3
WDL
9 Mar
vs Sassuolo
2–1
W
4 Mar
vs Atalanta
2–2
D
1 Mar
@ Torino
0–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
AC Milan – last 4
WLDW
1 Mar
@ Cremonese
2–0
W
22 Feb
vs Parma
0–1
L
18 Feb
vs Como
1–1
D
13 Feb
@ Pisa
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lazio and AC Milan.
Our pick is AC Milan or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Lazio vs AC Milan?
On our numbers Lazio have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 24% and AC Milan 60%.
How many goals will there be in Lazio vs AC Milan?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lazio vs AC Milan?
Our predicted score is Lazio 0–1 AC Milan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Lazio vs AC Milan?
Lazio vs AC Milan (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Olimpico.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Hellas Verona0
Pisa3