Deportivo La Guaira vs Aragua FC prediction & analysis
64%
Footrivo pick
Deportivo La Guaira to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.67 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.67Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.75 – our chance 61% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDeportivo La Guaira to win ✓64% · @1.67
Double chanceDeportivo La Guaira or draw ✓89% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.75
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓71% · fair 1.41
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.76
Deportivo La Guaira vs Aragua FC preview and prediction
The match
Aragua FC travel to Estadio Olimpico de la UCV in the Copa Venezuela on Wednesday 21 October (23:00 WAT) to face Deportivo La Guaira.
Form guide
Deportivo La Guaira's last 5: LDLLL Most recently they lost to Trujillanos FC 1–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Aragua FC's last 5: DWWWD Most recently they drew with Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 2–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Aragua FC arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.7 goals: 2.5 for Deportivo La Guaira and 1.1 for Aragua FC. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score in 61% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Deportivo La Guaira 64%, draw 25%, Aragua FC 11%.
Safer route: Deportivo La Guaira or draw (89%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.75 – 61% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Deportivo La Guaira to win – a 64% chance at odds of 1.67, above our fair price of 1.57, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Deportivo La Guaira 2–1 Aragua FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Deportivo La Guaira64%fair 1.57 · @1.67
Draw25%fair 4.01 · @3.40
Aragua FC11%fair 8.96 · @4.60
3.67Expected goals
2.54Deportivo La Guaira xG
1.13Aragua FC xG
61%Both score
71%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
2–08%
3–18%
1–17%
3–07%
1–06%
From our goals model: Deportivo La Guaira 2.5 – 1.1 Aragua FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportivo La Guaira to win✓
64%
1.57
1.67 ▲
Double chance
Deportivo La Guaira or draw✓
89%
1.13
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.63
1.75 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
50%
2.00
–
Half-time result
Deportivo La Guaira ahead at half-time✓
51%
1.96
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Deportivo La Guaira / FT Deportivo La Guaira✓
45%
2.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.76
–
Form
Deportivo La Guaira – last 6
LDLLLW
17 Oct
vs Trujillanos FC
1–2
L
10 Oct
@ Portuguesa FC
0–0
D
20 Sep
vs Deportivo Tachira FC
2–4
L
15 Sep
@ Carabobo FC
0–1
L
12 Sep
vs UCV
0–2
L
7 Sep
vs Anzoátegui FC
2–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Aragua FC – last 6
DWWWDW
18 Oct
@ Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
2–2
D
14 Oct
vs Caracas FC
3–1
W
7 Oct
@ Fundación Lara Deportiva
4–1
W
27 Sep
vs Atletico Avila FC
1–0
W
20 Sep
@ Bolívar
1–1
D
13 Sep
vs Petare FC
2–1
W
2.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportivo La Guaira and Aragua FC.
What is the prediction for Deportivo La Guaira vs Aragua FC?
Our pick is Deportivo La Guaira to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Deportivo La Guaira vs Aragua FC?
On our numbers Deportivo La Guaira have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Aragua FC 11%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo La Guaira vs Aragua FC?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo La Guaira vs Aragua FC?
Our predicted score is Deportivo La Guaira 2–1 Aragua FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Deportivo La Guaira vs Aragua FC?
Deportivo La Guaira vs Aragua FC (Copa Venezuela) kicks off on Wednesday 21 October 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Olimpico de la UCV.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Estudiantes de Merida FC1
Deportivo Tachira FC1
Monagas SC1