Value bet: Progreso to win @ 3.25 – our chance 35% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultWanderers to win ✗41% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.18
Wanderers vs Progreso preview and prediction
The match
Wanderers host Progreso in the Primera División Apertura on Sunday 25 October, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT) at Estadio Alfredo Victor Viera. Wanderers are 10th with 16 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Progreso sit 7th on 19 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Wanderers's last 5: LLDWW Most recently they lost to Racing Montevideo 0–3 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Progreso's last 5: WDLWW Most recently they beat Juventud 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Progreso arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 11 July 2026, finished Wanderers 2–0 Progreso.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Wanderers and 1.2 for Progreso. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 55%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Progreso to win at 3.25 – 35% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 55% chance at odds of 1.75. Predicted score: Wanderers 1–1 Progreso. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Wanderers41%fair 2.44 · @2.10
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @3.20
Progreso35%fair 2.85 · @3.25
2.48Expected goals
1.30Wanderers xG
1.18Progreso xG
55%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–08%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Wanderers 1.3 – 1.2 Progreso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Wanderers vs Progreso?
On our numbers Wanderers have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Progreso 35%.
How many goals will there be in Wanderers vs Progreso?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Wanderers vs Progreso?
Our predicted score is Wanderers 1–1 Progreso, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Wanderers vs Progreso?
Wanderers vs Progreso (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Alfredo Victor Viera.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
