Primera División Apertura · Uruguay · Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio UbillaCerro Largo vs Boston River prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.81 · bookmaker 1.91 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Boston River to win @ 2.62 – our chance 44% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Cerro Largo 1.0 – 1.2 Boston River expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Boston River shade it despite being away from home – 44% to win, against 33% for Cerro Largo.
Cerro Largo have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (1W 1D 4L), scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.2 per game. Boston River have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded. Boston River come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.2 goals (1.0 for Cerro Largo, 1.2 for Boston River). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely. Most likely scores: 0–1 (14%), 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (11%).
In their last 1 meeting, Cerro Largo have won 0, Boston River have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 55% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.91 is better than our fair price of 1.81, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Boston River to win at 2.62 is our value angle (44% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Boston River to win ✗ | 44% | 2.29 | 2.62 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 76% | 1.31 | 1.40 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 55% | 1.81 | 1.91 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 64% | 1.56 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 63% | 1.59 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 82% | 1.21 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 48% | 2.10 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Boston River / FT Boston River ✗ | 23% | 4.28 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 14% | 7.38 | – |
Form
Cerro Largo – last 6
| 21 Oct | @ Liverpool Montevideo | 0–1 | L |
| 16 Oct | @ Cerro | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Albion FC | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Oct | @ Danubio | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Sep | vs Rentistas | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Club Nacional | 0–2 | L |
Boston River – last 6
| 17 Oct | vs Defensor Sporting | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Oct | vs CA River Plate | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | @ Wanderers | 3–1 | W |
| 4 Oct | vs Juventud | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Sep | @ Penarol | 1–2 | L |
| 23 Sep | vs Fenix | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
| 20 Apr 2026 | Boston River v Cerro Largo | 1–0 |
Primera División Apertura table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Penarol | 35 | +24 | 65 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | +22 | 63 |
| 3 |  Atletico Torque | 35 | +18 | 63 |
| 4 |  Club Nacional | 35 | +11 | 61 |
| 5 |  Racing Montevideo | 35 | +14 | 60 |
| 6 |  Liverpool Montevideo | 35 | +16 | 59 |
| 7 |  Wanderers | 35 | -2 | 51 |
| 8 |  Albion FC | 35 | +3 | 47 |
| 9 |  Juventud | 35 | -6 | 41 |
| 10 |  Central Espanol | 35 | -13 | 41 |
| 11 |  Defensor Sporting | 35 | -8 | 39 |
| 12 |  Cerro Largo | 35 | -8 | 37 |
| 13 |  Boston River | 35 | -13 | 37 |
| 14 |  Cerro | 35 | -24 | 37 |
| 15 |  Progreso | 35 | -18 | 35 |
| 16 |  Danubio | 35 | -16 | 32 |
More Primera División Apertura predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Cerro Largo vs Boston River?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Cerro Largo vs Boston River?
On our numbers Cerro Largo have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Boston River 44%.
How many goals will there be in Cerro Largo vs Boston River?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
When is Cerro Largo vs Boston River?
Cerro Largo vs Boston River (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.