Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Penarol to win @ 1.91 – our chance 62% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPenarol to win ✗62% · @1.91
Double chancePenarol or draw ✓86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.51
Juventud vs Penarol preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División Apertura sees Juventud take on Penarol on Saturday 24 October, kicking off at 00:00 (WAT) at Estadio Centenario. Juventud are 8th with 18 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Penarol sit 5th on 22 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Juventud's last 5: LWWDD Most recently they lost to Progreso 0–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Penarol's last 5: LDWDW Most recently they lost to Liverpool Montevideo 0–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 21 April 2026, finished Penarol 2–2 Juventud.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 0.7 for Juventud and 1.7 for Penarol. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 49%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Juventud 14%, draw 23%, Penarol 62%.
Safer route: Penarol or draw (86%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Penarol to win at 1.91 – 62% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Penarol or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Juventud 0–1 Penarol. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Juventud14%fair 6.90 · @3.90
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.20
Penarol62%fair 1.61 · @1.91
2.42Expected goals
0.69Juventud xG
1.73Penarol xG
49%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
0–213%
1–111%
1–29%
0–09%
0–38%
From our goals model: Juventud 0.7 – 1.7 Penarol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Penarol or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Juventud vs Penarol?
On our numbers Juventud have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Penarol 62%.
How many goals will there be in Juventud vs Penarol?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Juventud vs Penarol?
Our predicted score is Juventud 0–1 Penarol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Juventud vs Penarol?
Juventud vs Penarol (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Centenario.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
