Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.30Odds
2
Value bet: Zira to win @ 1.85 – our chance 59% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultZira to win ✗59% · @1.85
Double chanceZira or draw ✓83% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · fair 1.89
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.74
Səbail vs Zira preview and prediction
The match
Zira travel to ASCO Arena in the Cup on Tuesday 27 October (15:00 WAT) to face Səbail.
Form guide
Səbail's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Şahdağ 0–1 away. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Zira's last 5: WDDLD Most recently they beat Sumqayıt 3–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Səbail arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 0.8 for Səbail and 1.8 for Zira. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 47%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Səbail 17%, draw 24%, Zira 59%.
Safer route: Zira or draw (83%) at 1.30.
Value angle: Zira to win at 1.85 – 59% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Zira or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.30, above our fair price of 1.20, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Səbail 0–1 Zira. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Səbail17%fair 5.88 · @3.60
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.50
Zira59%fair 1.70 · @1.85
2.62Expected goals
0.85Səbail xG
1.78Zira xG
47%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
0–211%
1–111%
1–210%
0–07%
0–37%
From our goals model: Səbail 0.8 – 1.8 Zira expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Zira to win✗
59%
1.70
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Zira or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.30 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
–
Half-time result
Zira ahead at half-time✓
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Zira / FT Zira✗
37%
2.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.74
–
Form
Səbail – last 6
LWDWWD
21 Oct
@ Şahdağ
0–1
L
15 Oct
@ Zaqatala
3–1
W
8 Oct
vs Karvan
1–1
D
17 Sep
@ Baku Sportinq
1–0
W
10 Sep
vs Mingəçevir
2–1
W
3 Sep
@ Xankəndi FK
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Zira – last 6
WDDLDL
23 Oct
vs Sumqayıt
3–2
W
18 Oct
@ Kapaz
1–1
D
10 Oct
vs Şamaxı FK
1–1
D
19 Sep
@ Turan
0–1
L
13 Sep
vs Qarabag
1–1
D
5 Sep
@ Sabah FA
0–5
L
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Səbail and Zira.
Our pick is Zira or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Səbail vs Zira?
On our numbers Səbail have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Zira 59%.
How many goals will there be in Səbail vs Zira?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Səbail vs Zira?
Our predicted score is Səbail 0–1 Zira, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Səbail vs Zira?
Səbail vs Zira (Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 27 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at ASCO Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Şimal0
Araz6
Qabala3
Mingəçevir0