Juventud travel to Parque Abraham Paladino in the Primera División Apertura on Saturday 17 October (14:00 WAT) to face Progreso. Progreso are 7th with 19 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Juventud sit 8th on 18 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Progreso's last 5: DLWWL Most recently they drew with Penarol 1–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Juventud's last 5: WWDDW Most recently they beat Racing Montevideo 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Juventud arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.0 for Progreso and 1.4 for Juventud. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 55%.
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 55% chance at odds of 1.73. Predicted score: Progreso 1–1 Juventud. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Progreso30%fair 3.36 · @3.10
Draw21%fair 4.76 · @3.30
Juventud49%fair 2.03 · @2.10
2.36Expected goals
0.98Progreso xG
1.38Juventud xG
55%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
1–113%
0–09%
1–09%
0–29%
1–29%
From our goals model: Progreso 1.0 – 1.4 Juventud expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Juventud to win✗
49%
2.03
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Juventud / FT Juventud✗
27%
3.69
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.67
–
Form
Progreso – last 6
DLWWLL
10 Oct
@ Penarol
1–1
D
3 Oct
@ Liverpool Montevideo
2–3
L
26 Sep
vs Racing Montevideo
2–1
W
19 Sep
@ Boston River
2–1
W
16 Sep
vs Club Nacional
0–1
L
13 Sep
vs Cerro
1–3
L
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Juventud – last 6
WWDDWL
11 Oct
vs Racing Montevideo
2–0
W
8 Oct
@ Plaza Colonia
1–0
W
4 Oct
@ Boston River
0–0
D
27 Sep
vs Cerro
0–0
D
20 Sep
@ Albion FC
3–1
W
19 Sep
@ Deportivo Maldonado
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Progreso and Juventud.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Progreso vs Juventud?
On our numbers Progreso have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Juventud 49%.
How many goals will there be in Progreso vs Juventud?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Progreso vs Juventud?
Our predicted score is Progreso 1–1 Juventud, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Progreso vs Juventud?
Progreso vs Juventud (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Parque Abraham Paladino.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
