Primera División Apertura · Uruguay · Estadio Osvaldo RobertoRacing Montevideo vs Wanderers prediction & analysis
Racing Montevideo or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Value bet: Racing Montevideo to win @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Racing Montevideo 1.5 – 0.8 Wanderers expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Racing Montevideo hold the edge on home soil with a 56% chance of winning, against 22% for Wanderers.
Racing Montevideo have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (1W 1D 4L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.7 per game. Wanderers have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded. Wanderers come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.3 goals (1.5 for Racing Montevideo, 0.8 for Wanderers). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 55%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (15%), 1–1 (12%), 2–0 (11%).
Our pick is Racing Montevideo or draw at a 78% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.28. For a bigger price, Racing Montevideo to win at 1.95 is our value angle (56% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Racing Montevideo to win ✓ | 56% | 1.78 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Double chance | Racing Montevideo or draw ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 55% | 1.83 | 1.91 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 67% | 1.50 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 60% | 1.67 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 80% | 1.25 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 45% | 2.20 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Racing Montevideo / FT Racing Montevideo ✗ | 33% | 3.07 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 15% | 6.57 | – |
Form
Racing Montevideo – last 6
| 11 Oct | @ Juventud | 0–2 | L |
| 4 Oct | vs Penarol | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Sep | @ Progreso | 1–2 | L |
| 21 Sep | @ Liverpool Montevideo | 0–0 | D |
| 17 Sep | @ Juventud | 0–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Boston River | 3–2 | W |
Wanderers – last 6
| 10 Oct | vs Boston River | 1–3 | L |
| 7 Oct | @ Cerrito | 2–2 | D |
| 4 Oct | @ Cerro | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Sep | vs Albion FC | 2–1 | W |
| 24 Sep | vs Cerrito | 1–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | @ Danubio | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Racing Montevideo and Wanderers.
Primera División Apertura table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Penarol | 35 | +24 | 65 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | +22 | 63 |
| 3 |  Atletico Torque | 35 | +18 | 63 |
| 4 |  Club Nacional | 35 | +11 | 61 |
| 5 |  Racing Montevideo | 35 | +14 | 60 |
| 6 |  Liverpool Montevideo | 35 | +16 | 59 |
| 7 |  Wanderers | 35 | -2 | 51 |
| 8 |  Albion FC | 35 | +3 | 47 |
| 9 |  Juventud | 35 | -6 | 41 |
| 10 |  Central Espanol | 35 | -13 | 41 |
| 11 |  Defensor Sporting | 35 | -8 | 39 |
| 12 |  Cerro Largo | 35 | -8 | 37 |
| 13 |  Boston River | 35 | -13 | 37 |
| 14 |  Cerro | 35 | -24 | 37 |
| 15 |  Progreso | 35 | -18 | 35 |
| 16 |  Danubio | 35 | -16 | 32 |
More Primera División Apertura predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Racing Montevideo vs Wanderers?
Our pick is Racing Montevideo or draw with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Racing Montevideo vs Wanderers?
On our numbers Racing Montevideo have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Wanderers 22%.
How many goals will there be in Racing Montevideo vs Wanderers?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
When is Racing Montevideo vs Wanderers?
Racing Montevideo vs Wanderers (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Osvaldo Roberto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.