Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 2.00 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
2.00Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultLillestrom to win ✓72% · @1.10
Double chanceLillestrom or draw ✓88% · @1.02
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @2.00
GoalsOver 3.5 goals ✗70% · fair 1.43
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–1 ✗8% · fair 13.30
Lillestrom vs Sogndal preview and prediction
The match
The NM Cupen sees Lillestrom take on Sogndal on Wednesday 28 October, kicking off at 18:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Lillestrom's last 5: WLWDD Most recently they beat Brann 3–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Sogndal's last 5: WWDLL Most recently they beat Kongsvinger 3–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Lillestrom arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.8 goals: 3.3 for Lillestrom and 1.4 for Sogndal. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 85% likely and both teams score in 62% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 62% chance at odds of 2.00, above our fair price of 1.60, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Lillestrom 3–1 Sogndal. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lillestrom72%fair 1.39 · @1.10
Draw16%fair 6.12 · @9.00
Sogndal12%fair 8.49 · @19.00
4.75Expected goals
3.30Lillestrom xG
1.45Sogndal xG
62%Both score
85%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
3–18%
2–17%
4–16%
3–25%
3–05%
2–25%
From our goals model: Lillestrom 3.3 – 1.4 Sogndal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lillestrom to win✓
72%
1.39
1.10
Double chance
Lillestrom or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.02
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.60
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
95%
1.05
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
–
Half-time result
Lillestrom ahead at half-time✗
57%
1.76
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lillestrom / FT Lillestrom✗
51%
1.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–1✗
8%
13.30
–
Form
Lillestrom – last 6
WLWDDW
25 Oct
vs Brann
3–2
W
22 Oct
vs Real Sociedad
0–6
L
18 Oct
@ Sandefjord
2–0
W
15 Oct
@ Sparta Praha
1–1
D
11 Oct
vs Molde
2–2
D
1 Oct
@ Bærum
5–1
W
2.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Sogndal – last 6
WWDLLL
25 Oct
vs Kongsvinger
3–1
W
21 Oct
vs Raufoss
2–1
W
18 Oct
@ Egersund
3–3
D
14 Oct
vs ODD Ballklubb
0–1
L
11 Oct
@ Asane
1–2
L
20 Sep
@ Stabaek
1–2
L
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lillestrom and Sogndal.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Lillestrom vs Sogndal?
On our numbers Lillestrom have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Sogndal 12%.
How many goals will there be in Lillestrom vs Sogndal?
We expect about 4.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 85% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lillestrom vs Sogndal?
Our predicted score is Lillestrom 3–1 Sogndal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.8 goals in total.
When is Lillestrom vs Sogndal?
Lillestrom vs Sogndal (NM Cupen) kicks off on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Tromsdalen Uil1
Lyn3
Asane3
hodd0
Egersund1
Bryne0
Kristiansund BK0
Aalesund2
Molde4
Stromsgodset1
Pors Grenland1
Kongsvinger1
Ranheim2
Fredrikstad5
Rosenborg1
Ham-Kam2