Primera División Apertura · Uruguay · Estadio Luis FranziniDefensor Sporting vs Danubio prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.92 · bookmaker 1.91 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Defensor Sporting 1.2 – 0.9 Danubio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Defensor Sporting hold the edge on home soil with a 46% chance of winning, against 31% for Danubio.
Defensor Sporting have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (1W 3D 2L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.3 per game. Danubio have 3 points from their last 6 (0W 3D 3L), averaging 0.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
We expect around 2.1 goals (1.2 for Defensor Sporting, 0.9 for Danubio). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (15%), 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (13%).
In their last 1 meeting, Defensor Sporting have won 0, Danubio have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 0.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 52% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.91 is close to our fair price of 1.92.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Defensor Sporting to win ✓ | 46% | 2.15 | 2.25 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 52% | 1.92 | 1.91 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 61% | 1.63 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 66% | 1.52 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 84% | 1.18 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 49% | 2.05 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Defensor Sporting / FT Defensor Sporting ✓ | 24% | 4.11 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✓ | 15% | 6.71 | – |
Form
Defensor Sporting – last 6
| 20 Sep | @ Club Nacional | 2–3 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Deportivo Maldonado | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Sep | @ Cerro Largo | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | @ Central Espanol | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | vs Atletico Torque | 1–3 | L |
| 25 Aug | vs Rentistas | 0–0 | D |
Danubio – last 6
| 24 Sep | vs Penarol | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Wanderers | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sep | @ Juventud | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs Penarol | 0–4 | L |
| 2 Sep | @ Atletico Torque | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | @ Progreso | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
| 26 Mar 2026 | Danubio v Defensor Sporting | 0–0 |
Primera División Apertura table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Penarol | 35 | +24 | 65 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | +22 | 63 |
| 3 |  Atletico Torque | 35 | +18 | 63 |
| 4 |  Club Nacional | 35 | +11 | 61 |
| 5 |  Racing Montevideo | 35 | +14 | 60 |
| 6 |  Liverpool Montevideo | 35 | +16 | 59 |
| 7 |  Wanderers | 35 | -2 | 51 |
| 8 |  Albion FC | 35 | +3 | 47 |
| 9 |  Juventud | 35 | -6 | 41 |
| 10 |  Central Espanol | 35 | -13 | 41 |
| 11 |  Defensor Sporting | 35 | -8 | 39 |
| 12 |  Cerro Largo | 35 | -8 | 37 |
| 13 |  Boston River | 35 | -13 | 37 |
| 14 |  Cerro | 35 | -24 | 37 |
| 15 |  Progreso | 35 | -18 | 35 |
| 16 |  Danubio | 35 | -16 | 32 |
More Primera División Apertura predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Danubio?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Defensor Sporting vs Danubio?
On our numbers Defensor Sporting have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Danubio 31%.
How many goals will there be in Defensor Sporting vs Danubio?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
When is Defensor Sporting vs Danubio?
Defensor Sporting vs Danubio (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Luis Franzini.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.