Primera División Apertura · Uruguay · Estadio Parque ArtigasJuventud vs Cerro prediction & analysis
Juventud to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.68 · bookmaker 1.75 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 53% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Juventud 1.6 – 0.8 Cerro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Juventud hold the edge on home soil with a 60% chance of winning, against 21% for Cerro.
Juventud have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.5 per game. Cerro have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
We expect around 2.4 goals (1.6 for Juventud, 0.8 for Cerro). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 53%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (15%), 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (11%).
In their last 1 meeting, Juventud have won 0, Cerro have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Juventud to win at a 60% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.75 is better than our fair price of 1.68, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.05 is our value angle (53% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Juventud to win ✗ | 60% | 1.68 | 1.75 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 80% | 1.25 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 53% | 1.89 | 2.05 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 69% | 1.44 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 57% | 1.76 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 78% | 1.29 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 44% | 2.29 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Juventud / FT Juventud ✗ | 35% | 2.86 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 15% | 6.87 | – |
Form
Juventud – last 6
| 20 Sep | @ Albion FC | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | @ Deportivo Maldonado | 0–2 | L |
| 17 Sep | vs Racing Montevideo | 3–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Danubio | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | @ Club Nacional | 2–2 | D |
| 2 Sep | @ Central Espanol | 0–3 | L |
Cerro – last 6
| 24 Sep | vs Deportivo Maldonado | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Penarol | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | @ Progreso | 3–1 | W |
| 10 Sep | vs Cerrito | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Racing Montevideo | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Sep | @ Wanderers | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 25 Mar 2026 | Cerro v Juventud | 1–0 |
Primera División Apertura table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Penarol | 35 | +24 | 65 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | +22 | 63 |
| 3 |  Atletico Torque | 35 | +18 | 63 |
| 4 |  Club Nacional | 35 | +11 | 61 |
| 5 |  Racing Montevideo | 35 | +14 | 60 |
| 6 |  Liverpool Montevideo | 35 | +16 | 59 |
| 7 |  Wanderers | 35 | -2 | 51 |
| 8 |  Albion FC | 35 | +3 | 47 |
| 9 |  Juventud | 35 | -6 | 41 |
| 10 |  Central Espanol | 35 | -13 | 41 |
| 11 |  Defensor Sporting | 35 | -8 | 39 |
| 12 |  Cerro Largo | 35 | -8 | 37 |
| 13 |  Boston River | 35 | -13 | 37 |
| 14 |  Cerro | 35 | -24 | 37 |
| 15 |  Progreso | 35 | -18 | 35 |
| 16 |  Danubio | 35 | -16 | 32 |
More Primera División Apertura predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Juventud vs Cerro?
Our pick is Juventud to win with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Juventud vs Cerro?
On our numbers Juventud have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Cerro 21%.
How many goals will there be in Juventud vs Cerro?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
When is Juventud vs Cerro?
Juventud vs Cerro (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Parque Artigas.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.