Value bet: Under 1.5 goals @ 2.09 – our chance 52% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMes Rafsanjan to win ✓65% · @1.67
Double chanceMes Rafsanjan or draw ✓85% · fair 1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗60% · @1.36
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗77% · @1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗28% · fair 3.57
Mes Rafsanjan vs Niroye Zamini preview and prediction
The match
Mes Rafsanjan host Niroye Zamini in the Azadegan League on Tuesday 20 October, with kick-off at 14:15 (WAT) at Shohadaye Sanat Mes Stadium. Mes Rafsanjan are 4th with 16 points from 9 games (in the top four), while Niroye Zamini sit 15th on 4 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Mes Rafsanjan's last 5: WWWDD Most recently they beat Mes Kerman 1–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Niroye Zamini's last 5: LDLLW Most recently they lost to Mes Soongoun 0–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Mes Rafsanjan arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.4 goals: 1.1 for Mes Rafsanjan and 0.3 for Niroye Zamini. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 77% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mes Rafsanjan 65%, draw 21%, Niroye Zamini 15%.
Both teams to score: no (60%) at 1.36.
Value angle: Under 1.5 goals at 2.09 – 52% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.29. Predicted score: Mes Rafsanjan 1–0 Niroye Zamini. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mes Rafsanjan65%fair 1.55 · @1.67
Draw21%fair 4.86 · @3.03
Niroye Zamini15%fair 6.71 · @5.50
1.39Expected goals
1.12Mes Rafsanjan xG
0.27Niroye Zamini xG
40%Both score
23%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–028%
0–025%
2–016%
1–17%
0–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Mes Rafsanjan 1.1 – 0.3 Niroye Zamini expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mes Rafsanjan to win✓
65%
1.55
1.67 ▲
Double chance
Mes Rafsanjan or draw✓
85%
1.18
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
60%
1.66
1.36
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✗
52%
1.93
2.09 ▲
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
77%
1.29
1.29
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
95%
1.06
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
57%
1.74
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mes Rafsanjan / FT Mes Rafsanjan✓
33%
2.99
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
28%
3.57
–
Form
Mes Rafsanjan – last 6
WWWDDL
12 Oct
@ Mes Kerman
1–0
W
5 Oct
vs Ario Eslamshahr
1–0
W
29 Sep
vs Be'sat Kermanshah
1–0
W
22 Sep
@ Mes Soongoun
0–0
D
16 Sep
vs Havadar
0–0
D
22 Feb
vs Esteghlal FC
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Niroye Zamini – last 6
LDLLWL
12 Oct
@ Mes Soongoun
0–1
L
5 Oct
vs Mes Kerman
0–0
D
28 Sep
@ Saipa
1–2
L
21 Sep
vs Fard Alborz
0–1
L
15 Sep
@ Novin Ahvaz
1–0
W
16 Jul
vs Sanat Naft
0–2
L
0.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mes Rafsanjan and Niroye Zamini.
What is the prediction for Mes Rafsanjan vs Niroye Zamini?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.29.
Who will win Mes Rafsanjan vs Niroye Zamini?
On our numbers Mes Rafsanjan have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Niroye Zamini 15%.
How many goals will there be in Mes Rafsanjan vs Niroye Zamini?
We expect about 1.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 23% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mes Rafsanjan vs Niroye Zamini?
Our predicted score is Mes Rafsanjan 1–0 Niroye Zamini, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.4 goals in total.
When is Mes Rafsanjan vs Niroye Zamini?
Mes Rafsanjan vs Niroye Zamini (Azadegan League) kicks off on Tuesday 20 October 2026 at 14:15 (West Africa Time) at Shohadaye Sanat Mes Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
