Saint Martin vs US Virgin Islands prediction & analysis
80%
Footrivo pick
Over 2.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.40 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.40Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.91 – our chance 69% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +31%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSaint Martin to win ✗69% · @1.12
Double chanceSaint Martin or draw ✗87% · @1.07
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗69% · @1.91
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗80% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–1 ✗6% · fair 17.48
Saint Martin vs US Virgin Islands preview and prediction
The match
The CONCACAF Nations League sees Saint Martin take on US Virgin Islands on Saturday 26 September, kicking off at 21:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Saint Martin's last 3: WWW Most recently they beat Bahamas 8–0 away. They are scoring freely – 4.7 goals a game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 5.7 goals: 3.8 for Saint Martin and 1.9 for US Virgin Islands. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 80% and both teams to score at 69%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Saint Martin 69%, draw 18%, US Virgin Islands 13%.
Both teams to score: yes (69%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.91 – 69% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.40, above our fair price of 1.25, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Saint Martin 3–1 US Virgin Islands. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Saint Martin69%fair 1.44 · @1.12
Draw18%fair 5.70 · @9.00
US Virgin Islands13%fair 7.55 · @13.00
5.73Expected goals
3.80Saint Martin xG
1.93US Virgin Islands xG
69%Both score
80%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
3–16%
3–26%
4–15%
4–25%
2–15%
2–24%
From our goals model: Saint Martin 3.8 – 1.9 US Virgin Islands expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Saint Martin to win✗
69%
1.44
1.12
Double chance
Saint Martin or draw✗
87%
1.15
1.07
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
69%
1.46
1.91 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
1.12
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
1.40 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
64%
1.55
2.00 ▲
Half-time result
Saint Martin ahead at half-time✗
57%
1.77
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Saint Martin / FT Saint Martin✗
50%
1.99
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–1✗
6%
17.48
–
Form
Saint Martin – last 3
WWW
23 Sep
@ Bahamas
8–0
W
30 Mar
@ Bonaire
3–0
W
26 Mar
vs Barbados
3–1
W
4.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
US Virgin Islands – last 1
W
25 Mar
vs American Samoa
5–2
W
5.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Saint Martin and US Virgin Islands.
What is the prediction for Saint Martin vs US Virgin Islands?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Saint Martin vs US Virgin Islands?
On our numbers Saint Martin have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 18% and US Virgin Islands 13%.
How many goals will there be in Saint Martin vs US Virgin Islands?
We expect about 5.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 80% likely and both teams score 69% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Saint Martin vs US Virgin Islands?
Our predicted score is Saint Martin 3–1 US Virgin Islands, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 5.7 goals in total.
When is Saint Martin vs US Virgin Islands?
Saint Martin vs US Virgin Islands (CONCACAF Nations League) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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St. Lucia0
Jamaica3
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Honduras2
Suriname3
El Salvador3
Martinique1
Montserrat3
British Virgin Islands0
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French Guyana1