Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.60 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.60Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultFolgore to win ✓72% · @1.30
Double chanceFolgore or draw ✓90% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · fair 1.86
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓65% · @1.60
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗9% · fair 10.92
Pennarossa vs Folgore preview and prediction
The match
Pennarossa host Folgore in the Campionato on Friday 9 October, with kick-off at 20:15 (WAT). Pennarossa are 13th with 5 points from 8 games (in the bottom half), while Folgore sit 1st on 22 points (top of the table). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Pennarossa's last 5: WLWLL Most recently they beat Fiorentino 3–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 3.2 conceded.
Folgore's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat San Marino Academy 2–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Folgore arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 21 February 2026, finished Pennarossa 2–3 Folgore.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.7 goals: 1.0 for Pennarossa and 2.7 for Folgore. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score in 54% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.60, above our fair price of 1.54, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Pennarossa 1–2 Folgore. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Pennarossa10%fair 9.56 · @7.00
Draw18%fair 5.56 · @5.00
Folgore72%fair 1.40 · @1.30
3.65Expected goals
0.99Pennarossa xG
2.66Folgore xG
54%Both score
65%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–29%
1–29%
0–38%
1–38%
0–17%
1–17%
From our goals model: Pennarossa 1.0 – 2.7 Folgore expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Pennarossa vs Folgore?
On our numbers Pennarossa have a 10% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Folgore 72%.
How many goals will there be in Pennarossa vs Folgore?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pennarossa vs Folgore?
Our predicted score is Pennarossa 1–2 Folgore, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Pennarossa vs Folgore?
Pennarossa vs Folgore (Campionato) kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
