Liga Pro · Ecuador · Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne
Libertad
Emelec
Libertad vs Emelec prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.32 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
Value bet: Libertad to win @ 2.40 – our chance 45% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Libertad 1.3 – 1.1 Emelec expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Libertad hold the edge on home soil with a 45% chance of winning, against 32% for Emelec.
Libertad have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.3 per game. Emelec have 3 points from their last 6 (1W 0D 5L), averaging 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded. Libertad come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.4 goals (1.3 for Libertad, 1.1 for Emelec). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 57%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (12%), 0–1 (10%).
In their last 2 meetings, Libertad have won 1, Emelec have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 76% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.28 is close to our fair price of 1.32. For a bigger price, Libertad to win at 2.40 is our value angle (45% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Libertad to win ✗ | 45% | 2.23 | 2.40 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 77% | 1.30 | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 57% | 1.76 | 1.73 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 70% | 1.42 | 1.30 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 56% | 1.79 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.28 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 45% | 2.21 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Libertad / FT Libertad ✗ | 25% | 4.03 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 12% | 8.13 | – |
Form
Libertad – last 6
| 1 Nov | @ Guayaquil City FC | 0–0 | D |
| 25 Oct | @ Leones del Norte | 1–4 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Guayaquil City FC | 4–0 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Leones del Norte | 3–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | @ Emelec | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Sep | vs Independiente del Valle | 2–3 | L |
Emelec – last 6
| 31 Oct | vs Leones del Norte | 0–2 | L |
| 25 Oct | vs Guayaquil City FC | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Oct | @ Leones del Norte | 3–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | @ Guayaquil City FC | 2–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Libertad | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | @ Macara | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
| 20 Sep 2026 | Emelec v Libertad | 1–2 |
| 4 Sep 2026 | Libertad v Emelec | 1–1 |
More Liga Pro predictions
Aucas2
Independiente del Valle4
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
67%@1.44
✓
FT
Barcelona SC1
LDU de Quito1
U3.5Under 3.5 goals
77%@1.28
✓
FT
Macara2
Universidad Catolica2
U3.5Under 3.5 goals
74%@1.28
✗
FT
Deportivo Cuenca2
Orense SC0
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
64%@1.50
✓
FT
Leones del Norte1
Guayaquil City FC1
1Leones del Norte to win
67%@1.73
✗
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Libertad vs Emelec?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Libertad vs Emelec?
On our numbers Libertad have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Emelec 32%.
How many goals will there be in Libertad vs Emelec?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
When is Libertad vs Emelec?
Libertad vs Emelec (Liga Pro) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.