Liga Pro · Ecuador · Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
Aucas vs Independiente del Valle prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
Value bet: Independiente del Valle to win @ 2.20 – our chance 51% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Aucas 1.0 – 1.5 Independiente del Valle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Independiente del Valle shade it despite being away from home – 51% to win, against 26% for Aucas.
Aucas have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.7 per game. Independiente del Valle have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 1.5 scored and 0.3 conceded. Independiente del Valle come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.0 for Aucas, 1.5 for Independiente del Valle). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 52%. Most likely scores: 0–1 (13%), 1–1 (12%), 0–2 (10%).
In their last 2 meetings, Aucas have won 0, Independiente del Valle have won 2 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 67% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.44 is close to our fair price of 1.48. For a bigger price, Independiente del Valle to win at 2.20 is our value angle (51% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Independiente del Valle to win ✓ | 51% | 1.97 | 2.20 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 77% | 1.31 | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 52% | 1.90 | 1.91 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 67% | 1.48 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 59% | 1.69 | 1.50 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 79% | 1.27 | 1.17 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.27 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle ✓ | 29% | 3.40 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 13% | 7.82 | – |
Form
Aucas – last 6
| 1 Nov | @ Universidad Catolica | 2–1 | W |
| 25 Oct | vs Barcelona SC | 0–4 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs LDU de Quito | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | @ Independiente del Valle | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Macara | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | @ Manta FC | 0–0 | D |
Independiente del Valle – last 6
| 6 Nov | vs Delfin SC | 2–0 | W |
| 1 Nov | vs LDU de Quito | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Oct | @ Delfin SC | 3–0 | W |
| 23 Oct | vs Universidad Catolica | 0–0 | D |
| 18 Oct | @ Macara | 0–1 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Aucas | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
| 10 Oct 2026 | Independiente del Valle v Aucas | 2–1 |
| 16 Jul 2026 | Aucas v Independiente del Valle | 0–3 |
More Liga Pro predictions
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Universidad Catolica2
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Deportivo Cuenca2
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Leones del Norte1
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Libertad0
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Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Aucas vs Independiente del Valle?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Aucas vs Independiente del Valle?
On our numbers Aucas have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Independiente del Valle 51%.
How many goals will there be in Aucas vs Independiente del Valle?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
When is Aucas vs Independiente del Valle?
Aucas vs Independiente del Valle (Liga Pro) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.