Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC prediction & analysis
84%
Footrivo pick
Libertad or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Libertad to win @ 1.80 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLibertad to win ✓60% · @1.80
Double chanceLibertad or draw ✓84% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.30
Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Pro sees Libertad take on Guayaquil City FC on Sunday 18 October, kicking off at 21:00 (WAT) at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne. Libertad are 7th with 51 points from 36 games, while Guayaquil City FC sit 8th on 48 points. Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Libertad's last 5: WWLWD Most recently they beat Leones del Norte 3–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Guayaquil City FC's last 5: WDWLL Most recently they beat Emelec 3–2 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 15 August 2026, finished Guayaquil City FC 2–2 Libertad. Across their last 2 meetings Libertad have won 0, Guayaquil City FC 1, with 1 draw and 2.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.6 for Libertad and 0.7 for Guayaquil City FC. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Libertad 60%, draw 24%, Guayaquil City FC 16%.
Safer route: Libertad or draw (84%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Libertad to win at 1.80 – 60% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Libertad or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Libertad 1–0 Guayaquil City FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Libertad60%fair 1.66 · @1.80
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @3.10
Guayaquil City FC16%fair 6.24 · @3.90
2.33Expected goals
1.63Libertad xG
0.70Guayaquil City FC xG
54%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–013%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–07%
From our goals model: Libertad 1.6 – 0.7 Guayaquil City FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC?
Our pick is Libertad or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC?
On our numbers Libertad have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Guayaquil City FC 16%.
How many goals will there be in Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC?
Our predicted score is Libertad 1–0 Guayaquil City FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC?
Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC (Liga Pro) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
