Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Leones del Norte to win @ 1.91 – our chance 58% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLeones del Norte to win ✗58% · @1.91
Double chanceLeones del Norte or draw ✗80% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗84% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.74
Leones del Norte vs Emelec preview and prediction
The match
Leones del Norte host Emelec in the Liga Pro on Sunday 18 October, with kick-off at 21:00 (WAT) at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra. Leones del Norte are 9th with 47 points from 36 games, while Emelec sit 10th on 45 points. Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Leones del Norte's last 5: LDLDW Most recently they lost to Libertad 0–3 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Emelec's last 5: LLLWD Most recently they lost to Guayaquil City FC 2–3 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 31 August 2026, finished Emelec 2–1 Leones del Norte. Across their last 2 meetings Leones del Norte have won 1, Emelec 1, with 0 draws and 2.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.4 for Leones del Norte and 0.7 for Emelec. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Leones del Norte 58%, draw 22%, Emelec 20%.
Safer route: Leones del Norte or draw (80%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Leones del Norte to win at 1.91 – 58% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Leones del Norte or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Leones del Norte 1–0 Emelec. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leones del Norte58%fair 1.73 · @1.91
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @2.88
Emelec20%fair 5.05 · @3.90
2.11Expected goals
1.44Leones del Norte xG
0.67Emelec xG
48%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–013%
0–012%
1–112%
2–18%
0–18%
From our goals model: Leones del Norte 1.4 – 0.7 Emelec expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Leones del Norte vs Emelec?
Our pick is Leones del Norte or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Leones del Norte vs Emelec?
On our numbers Leones del Norte have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Emelec 20%.
How many goals will there be in Leones del Norte vs Emelec?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones del Norte vs Emelec?
Our predicted score is Leones del Norte 1–0 Emelec, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Leones del Norte vs Emelec?
Leones del Norte vs Emelec (Liga Pro) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
