Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 50% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPenarol to win ✓66% · @1.50
Double chancePenarol or draw ✓91% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗16% · fair 6.07
Cerro vs Penarol preview and prediction
The match
Cerro host Penarol in the Primera División Apertura on Saturday 19 September, with kick-off at 19:30 (WAT). Cerro are 9th with 18 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Penarol sit 5th on 22 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Cerro's last 5: WLWDD Most recently they beat Progreso 3–1 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Penarol's last 5: WWDLW Most recently they beat Albion FC 3–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Penarol arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 7 June 2026, finished Cerro 0–1 Penarol. Across their last 2 meetings Cerro have won 0, Penarol 2, with 0 draws and 2.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 0.6 for Cerro and 1.8 for Penarol. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cerro 9%, draw 25%, Penarol 66%.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 2.15.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.15 – 50% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Penarol to win – a 66% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Cerro 0–1 Penarol. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cerro9%fair 11.01 · @6.50
Draw25%fair 4.01 · @3.70
Penarol66%fair 1.52 · @1.50
2.41Expected goals
0.57Cerro xG
1.84Penarol xG
50%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–116%
0–215%
1–19%
0–39%
0–09%
1–29%
From our goals model: Cerro 0.6 – 1.8 Penarol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Penarol to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Cerro vs Penarol?
On our numbers Cerro have a 9% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Penarol 66%.
How many goals will there be in Cerro vs Penarol?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerro vs Penarol?
Our predicted score is Cerro 0–1 Penarol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Cerro vs Penarol?
Cerro vs Penarol (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
