Primera División Apertura · Uruguay · Estadio Campeones OlimpicosBoston River vs Progreso prediction & analysis
Boston River or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Boston River to win @ 1.91 – our chance 63% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Boston River 1.6 – 0.6 Progreso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Boston River are clear favourites at home with a 63% chance of winning, against 17% for Progreso.
Boston River have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.2 per game. Progreso have 6 points from their last 6 (2W 0D 4L), averaging 0.7 scored and 1.3 conceded. Boston River come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.3 goals (1.6 for Boston River, 0.6 for Progreso). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 46%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (17%), 2–0 (14%), 1–1 (11%).
Our pick is Boston River or draw at a 83% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is better than our fair price of 1.20, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Boston River to win at 1.91 is our value angle (63% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Boston River to win ✗ | 63% | 1.59 | 1.91 ▲ |
| Double chance | Boston River or draw ✗ | 83% | 1.20 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 54% | 1.87 | 1.85 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 66% | 1.51 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 60% | 1.66 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 81% | 1.24 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 45% | 2.24 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Boston River / FT Boston River ✗ | 37% | 2.67 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 17% | 5.97 | – |
Form
Boston River – last 6
| 12 Sep | @ Racing Montevideo | 2–3 | L |
| 9 Sep | vs Colón | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | @ Liverpool Montevideo | 0–1 | L |
| 2 Sep | @ Liverpool Montevideo | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | vs Cerro | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Aug | @ Albion FC | 3–2 | W |
Progreso – last 6
| 16 Sep | vs Club Nacional | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Cerro | 1–3 | L |
| 7 Sep | @ Albion FC | 1–0 | W |
| 3 Sep | @ Albion FC | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Danubio | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Aug | vs CA River Plate | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Boston River and Progreso.
Primera División Apertura table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Penarol | 35 | +24 | 65 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | +22 | 63 |
| 3 |  Atletico Torque | 35 | +18 | 63 |
| 4 |  Club Nacional | 35 | +11 | 61 |
| 5 |  Racing Montevideo | 35 | +14 | 60 |
| 6 |  Liverpool Montevideo | 35 | +16 | 59 |
| 7 |  Wanderers | 35 | -2 | 51 |
| 8 |  Albion FC | 35 | +3 | 47 |
| 9 |  Juventud | 35 | -6 | 41 |
| 10 |  Central Espanol | 35 | -13 | 41 |
| 11 |  Defensor Sporting | 35 | -8 | 39 |
| 12 |  Cerro Largo | 35 | -8 | 37 |
| 13 |  Boston River | 35 | -13 | 37 |
| 14 |  Cerro | 35 | -24 | 37 |
| 15 |  Progreso | 35 | -18 | 35 |
| 16 |  Danubio | 35 | -16 | 32 |
More Primera División Apertura predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Boston River vs Progreso?
Our pick is Boston River or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Boston River vs Progreso?
On our numbers Boston River have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Progreso 17%.
How many goals will there be in Boston River vs Progreso?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
When is Boston River vs Progreso?
Boston River vs Progreso (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Campeones Olimpicos.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.