FA Trophy · England
Leiston vs Dartford prediction & analysis
Leiston or draw
Strong pick · fair odds 1.29 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Draw @ 3.60 – our chance 55% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +98%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Leiston 1.4 – 1.4 Dartford expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Leiston and Dartford on our numbers – 23% for the home side, 23% for the visitors and 55% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Leiston have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.5 per game. Dartford have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 2.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
We expect around 2.9 goals (1.4 for Leiston, 1.4 for Dartford). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 51%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 1–2 (8%), 2–1 (8%).
Our pick is Leiston or draw at a 77% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.44 is better than our fair price of 1.29, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Draw at 3.60 is our value angle (55% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Draw ✗ | 55% | 1.82 | 3.60 ▲ |
| Double chance | Leiston or draw ✗ | 77% | 1.29 | 1.44 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 51% | 1.97 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 78% | 1.27 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 55% | 1.81 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 67% | 1.49 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 41% | 2.47 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Dartford / FT Dartford ✓ | 22% | 4.55 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–1 ✗ | 12% | 8.63 | – |
Form
Leiston – last 6
| 22 Sep | vs Peterborough Sports | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | @ Hitchin Town | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | @ Banbury United | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | @ Grays Athletic | 0–0 | D |
| 31 Aug | @ Bury Town | 3–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Redditch United | 3–1 | W |
Dartford – last 6
| 19 Sep | vs Hayes & Yeading United | 4–2 | W |
| 15 Sep | @ Enfield Town | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | @ Carshalton Athletic | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | @ Westfield (Surrey) | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Aug | vs Chatham Town | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | @ Burgess Hill Town | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leiston and Dartford.
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Banbury United3Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Leiston vs Dartford?
Our pick is Leiston or draw with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Leiston vs Dartford?
On our numbers Leiston have a 23% chance of winning, the draw 55% and Dartford 23%.
How many goals will there be in Leiston vs Dartford?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
When is Leiston vs Dartford?
Leiston vs Dartford (FA Trophy) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.