FA Trophy · England · Gigg Lane
Bury vs Gainsborough Trinity prediction & analysis
Bury to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.73 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Bury 2.1 – 1.0 Gainsborough Trinity expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Bury are clear favourites at home with a 63% chance of winning, against 16% for Gainsborough Trinity.
Bury have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (4W 0D 2L), scoring 4.2 and conceding 0.7 per game. Gainsborough Trinity have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.7 scored and 1.5 conceded.
We expect around 3.1 goals (2.1 for Bury, 1.0 for Gainsborough Trinity). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Bury have won 1, Gainsborough Trinity have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Bury to win at a 63% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.73 is better than our fair price of 1.58, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Bury to win ✗ | 63% | 1.58 | 1.73 ▲ |
| Double chance | Bury or draw ✓ | 84% | 1.19 | 1.18 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 52% | 1.92 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 81% | 1.24 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 59% | 1.70 | 1.60 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 63% | 1.58 | – |
| Half-time result | Bury ahead at half-time ✓ | 46% | 2.15 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Bury / FT Bury ✗ | 41% | 2.44 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 10% | 9.65 | – |
Form
Bury – last 6
| 19 Sep | vs Workington | 5–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs AFC Emley | 4–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Wythenshawe Amateurs | 8–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | @ Hyde United | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Ilkeston Town | 7–0 | W |
| 25 Aug | vs Lancaster City | 0–1 | L |
Gainsborough Trinity – last 6
| 22 Sep | vs Leamington | 3–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | @ Leamington | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Avro | 0–2 | L |
| 5 Sep | @ Sherwood Colliery | 4–2 | W |
| 31 Aug | vs Cleethorpes Town | 0–3 | L |
| 28 Aug | @ Ashton United | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
| 22 Aug 2026 | Gainsborough Trinity v Bury | 0–1 |
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Banbury United3Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Bury vs Gainsborough Trinity?
Our pick is Bury to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Bury vs Gainsborough Trinity?
On our numbers Bury have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Gainsborough Trinity 16%.
How many goals will there be in Bury vs Gainsborough Trinity?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
When is Bury vs Gainsborough Trinity?
Bury vs Gainsborough Trinity (FA Trophy) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Gigg Lane.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.