Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 2.25 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
2.25Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultJapan U23 to win ✓74% · @1.17
Double chanceJapan U23 or draw ✓89% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @2.25
GoalsOver 3.5 goals ✗73% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–1 ✗7% · fair 13.83
Japan U23 vs Thailand U23 preview and prediction
The match
The Asian Games sees Japan U23 take on Thailand U23 on Wednesday 23 September, kicking off at 11:30 (WAT) at Toyota Stadium. Japan U23 are 1st with 9 points from 3 games, while Thailand U23 sit 2nd on 6 points. Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Thailand U23's last 5: WWLLW Most recently they beat Hong Kong U23 5–1 away. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 5.0 goals: 3.5 for Japan U23 and 1.5 for Thailand U23. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 88% and both teams to score at 61%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Japan U23 74%, draw 16%, Thailand U23 11%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 2.25.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 61% chance at odds of 2.25, above our fair price of 1.64, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Japan U23 3–1 Thailand U23. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Japan U2374%fair 1.36 · @1.17
Draw16%fair 6.37 · @6.00
Thailand U2311%fair 9.33 · @13.00
5.00Expected goals
3.51Japan U23 xG
1.49Thailand U23 xG
61%Both score
88%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
3–17%
4–16%
2–16%
3–25%
3–05%
4–25%
From our goals model: Japan U23 3.5 – 1.5 Thailand U23 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Japan U23 to win✓
74%
1.36
1.17
Double chance
Japan U23 or draw✓
89%
1.12
1.03
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.64
2.25 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
96%
1.04
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.36
–
Half-time result
Japan U23 ahead at half-time✓
59%
1.71
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Japan U23 / FT Japan U23✓
53%
1.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–1✗
7%
13.83
–
Form
Japan U23 – last 2
WW
20 Sep
@ Kyrgyz Republic U23
7–0
W
16 Sep
vs Hong Kong U23
2–0
W
4.5Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Thailand U23 – last 6
WWLLWD
20 Sep
@ Hong Kong U23
5–1
W
16 Sep
vs Kyrgyz Republic U23
3–2
W
9 Jun
vs UAE U23
2–5
L
6 Jun
vs Korea Republic U23
2–3
L
28 Mar
vs Vietnam U23
1–0
W
25 Mar
@ China PR U23
2–2
D
2.5Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Japan U23 and Thailand U23.
What is the prediction for Japan U23 vs Thailand U23?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.25.
Who will win Japan U23 vs Thailand U23?
On our numbers Japan U23 have a 74% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Thailand U23 11%.
How many goals will there be in Japan U23 vs Thailand U23?
We expect about 5.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 88% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Japan U23 vs Thailand U23?
Our predicted score is Japan U23 3–1 Thailand U23, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 5.0 goals in total.
When is Japan U23 vs Thailand U23?
Japan U23 vs Thailand U23 (Asian Games) kicks off on Wednesday 23 September 2026 at 11:30 (West Africa Time) at Toyota Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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